There are still some Unrestricted Free Agents looking for new deals, though the ones that might be attractive to our Winnipeg Jets are very limited. Forwards like Vladislav Tarasenko, Philipp Kurashev, & Patrik Laine shouldn’t really be targets for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, I could see the benefit of bringing in one of Eeli Tolvanen or Michael Bunting…..but only if a player like Vladislav Namestnikov or Nino Niederreiter is moved to open up a spot. On the backend, there is still veteran RD John Klingberg or LD Logan Stanley waiting for their next club…but hopefully Chevy knows that neither would be beneficial for the True Northers this season. Really would like to see Big Stan sign a contract soon, so a return to the Peg could be completely taken off the table.

*****

The Connor Hellebuyck trade talk rumours have dwindled down to almost nothing in the past few weeks…and it has gotten to the point most of the fans on PuckPedia have given up on suggestion trade offers for the 3 time Vezina Trophy winner. There are still the diehard Jets’ & Sabres’ fans that believe one or the other GM will blink first before the season starts, but I think that is a long shot at this point. If either side was going to budge, it probably would have occurred by now. So it will likely come down to how the NHL’s 2026-27 season starts to see if injuries or bad play could open up more interesting parties or convince Buffalo that they need to make a move for Helly.

*****

Speaking of the 2026-27 campaign, it will be the first under the new agreement that has increased the NHL’s regular season to 84 contests. The switch does make it simpler for the schedule makers, as each club will face their own division 4 times (28 gms), each team in the other division from their conference 3 times (24), and play the other two divisions’ squads twice each (32). That means the only real advantage available for clubs is who gets the extra home game in the 3 game series situations and for Winnipeg, that is versus the Pacific Division. Here is the teams the Jets have the home ice edge on this season:

Anaheim Ducks, Vancouver Canucks, San Jose Sharks, & Calgary Flames

That means the True Northers will have to play the Vegas Golden Knights, the Edmonton Oilers, the Los Angeles Kings, & the Seattle Kraken twice each on the road.

The schedule changes also resulted in a reduction of the Pre-Season games from 6 to 4 matches and initially I never really gave that move a second thought. Yet recently I was reading an article about the Oilers and it happened to mention that “veterans” had to play at least 2 of those 4 games. Since Winnipeg has a veteran-laden roster, that piqued my interest a bit. Previously, NHL clubs had to dress at least 8 veterans for each of the 6 exhibition games to ensure there was enough talent on the ice for the paying fans.

So, if you consider that teams may play goalies for half games early on, lets say that there are 20 roster spots available for each contest and 8 of those had to be filled with veterans, leaving 12 roster spots for young prospects to impress the coaching staff. Since every team pretty much plays their normal starting roster in the final pre-season game, lets go with 5 games for our calculations. 20 spots available for 5 games = 100 spots and 40 (8 x 5) of those had to be filled by “veterans” leaving the coaches with 60 to give an opportunity to the young prospects.

But now with the reduction of games and increase in required “veteran’s“, what is the impact for the youth? Well, we still have 20 roster spots per game, but now are likely down to only 3 where the kids will get a chance to shine, so 60 available spots overall. Now if half of those have to be filled with “veterans“, that leaves only 30 for the non-veterans to get on the ice. A reduction of 50%….that could significantly impact who and how often a prospect gets to have a taste of NHL action in the pre-season.

When it comes to defining “veterans“, the NHL doesn’t make it that difficult to qualify…all you need is to have played at least 30 NHL games the prior season or 100+ NHL games in your career. Using PuckPedia to look at the Winnipeg Jets’ roster, I quickly discovered that our squad has 22 players that meet the criteria. However, Swedish defenseman Elias Salomonsson doesn’t sound like he will be ready to go that early, so that reduces it down to 21. Yet one final caveat in the rules indicates that players who were selected in the 1st round of the most recent draft are also considered “veterans” because of their star power, so Viggo Bjorck will bring that Jets’ number back to 22 again.

44 games out of 60 are to be taken up by “veterans“, leaving Winnipeg’s 20 signed players outside of the NHL (and including Brad Lambert & Jack St. Ivany, who didn’t qualify as vets) fighting for only 36 spots in the pre-season. Not a lot of space to test where guys like Brayden Yager, Kieron Walton, Kevin He, Alfons Freij, Garrett Brown, Colby Barlow, etc are in their development. I guess it is fortunate that while active NCAA players are now allowed to attend training camps with their teams, they aren’t allowed to play in games if they want to play in college this season. Therefore, prospects like Sascha Boumedienne, Edison Engle, & Zach Nehring won’t be taking away any spots from the other kids.

It gets worse in net if the veteran tenders need to get 2 games each (Hellebuyck & Stuart Skinner), as that would leave nothing for Thomas Milic or Dominic DiVincentiis. Possibly a half game would count as 1 game under the rules and that would allow the goalie prospects to each get 30 minutes of exhibition action?

*****

The international hockey community recently completed their Summer Showcase tournament, which gives the countries a chance to see what players they should be keeping an eye on for their World Junior Championship rosters for the big December/January tourney. On of the Winnipeg Jets many Swedish prospects is fighting for a spot this season after being overlooked in 2025-26 and from the sounds of it he made an impression on the coaching staff. Picking up 2 assists in the short tourney, plus adding an early goal that helped switch momentum in a 5-2 win over Finland, the offensively talented forward was very noticeable. You don’t have to just take my word for it….

#25 Viktor Klingsell, RW: Klingsell is such a smart, skilled forward who has consistently found himself in dangerous scoring lanes. He tallied a goal in the first period to give the Swedes some life, and he also had another good look on a later power play. Klingsell had a good week in Windsor; I think he’ll be a solid middle-six contributor who can be relied on in open ice. Daily FaceOff

*****

It was a while ago, but the Manitoba Moose ended up signing a forward named Deni Goure to a contract for the upcoming season. At the time, I just entered his name onto my organizational depth chart but never really got around to checking out his history. The 23 yr old went undrafted after a successful Junior career, which included a high of 96 pts in 68 gms in his final campaign in 2023-24. He then has since proved that he can continue to contribute offensively in the ECHL with 104 pts in 135 gms.

While all of that is interesting, what really caught my attention was that Goure was a teammate of fellow Jets’ prospect Colby Barlow with the Owen Sound Attack. In case you forgot, Colby was an absolute sniper in Juniors, scoring an impressive 148 goals in 230 Junior games (0.644 goals/gm)….yet hasn’t been able to carry that over to the AHL yet (8 goals in 65 gms = 0.132 G/gm).

Maybe reuniting with his former linemate and set up man with Manitoba could reignite that scoring spark? Goure has plenty of competition to make the Moose this year, but if you watch the video below you will see that he appears to be good at setting up Barlow’s powerful 1 timer.

*****

That is all I have been able to come up with in terms of Winnipeg Jets’ news…..so time to sign of by wishing you all a great August. See you back here in September when the hockey action starts up again.

My summer so far has been untypically hectic to date…..a radical departure from my normal laissez faire lifestyle. As a result, while I did get the opportunity to read both of Mullayo’s articles about his True Value (TV) metric and spend a bit of time doing research & comparisons, I just haven’t found the time to put all of that into an article that might capture people’s attention. Well, my calendar finally hasn’t got any To Do tasks written on it just as I am starting a week of holidays…..perfect. So I decided to put Led Zeppelin IV on the stereo and finally dive into this thing….

Everyone around here is probably well aware of my fondness to use statistics to evaluate the performance’s of the Winnipeg Jets, so the opportunity to add another one to my arsenal truly got me excited. It should be noted that while I did focus on statistics in university, my employment has only required the use of the most basic of these calculations. So I am far from an expert and certainly creating a complex metric like True Value isn’t really in my repertoire. Maybe if I dug through all my memories to get back to the mid-90’s some of that math would come back to me? What I do have going for me is years of watching, playing, and analyzing the sport of hockey.

Over those decades, I have gathered a bunch of freely available statistical categories that I like to depend on to accurately reflect a player’s performance. Just like a builder relies on tools such as hammers, drills, and saws to get their jobs done properly, anyone looking to dive into the work of analyzing a hockey player’s performance will require good metrics to do it well. There are certainly other stats not included that would be helpful, but most of those require a paid subscription somewhere (possession numbers, zone exit & entry data, etc). Since most hockey fans aren’t willing to go to that extent, I have focused on the stats that are easily collected and think they still do a good job of reflecting how a specific player performed in a season.

After Mullayo broke down what his True Value metric is trying to show in his first article at Arctic Ice Hockey, True Value: An Apples vs Apples Scouting Tool, I got to thinking how that information would look along side the statistics I generally rely on. Unfortunately that meant doing the work to add a full 8 columns to the spreadsheet in his article…bringing the total to a rather large 24. When you add that there are 95 players included in our review, that is a lot of information to gather and enter. Unfortunately, despite the great efforts by statisticians over the years….they haven’t come up with just one metric that could accurately reflect how good the overall play of a specific player was. That is because hockey is way too complicated for something like that. Just as a club needs players that can score goals like the TV stat is trying to bring to the forefront, they also need skaters that are adept at stopping goals from getting by their own goalie. It is almost an impossible ask for 1 stat to cover both sides of that coin….so alas, we are left with all these data points for our review:

Since all the metrics above are able to give us a glimpse into a certain aspect of a player’s game and the fact that there are a lot of “aspects” that go into the sport of hockey….it totally makes sense that the more information you include, the more complete the picture you can get. However, you have to draw the line somewhere, so lets get into discussing all the categories I think are noteworthy when trying to analyze the players Mullayo included in his spreadsheet. That spreadsheet included 95 players (all forwards except Zach Werenski) that spanned 1st line to 4th line talent, so it gives us a good array of skaters to look at.

A lot of the categories in the legend above don’t require further explanation, in particular the first column that includes basic stats like points and special team ice times.

The 2nd column include Mullayo’s new metrics and the NHL Equivalent stat he wanted to improve on. The NHLe is not very complicated and when it comes to a NHL player, it basically tells us how many points they would have gotten if they played all 82 regular season games at the average ice time they had that year. Besides saving me a bit of math, the metric is more useful when it comes to a player who was outside of the big league since it attempts to predict how many points they would have gotten if they were in the NHL.

The True Value metrics (including TV, TVA, TVe, & EVe) are our very own number cruncher’s attempt to improve the hockey scouting world by giving them a tool to potentially identify impact players. I certainly suggest you read the actual article linked above for a full explanation, but the aim was twofold – first to find a way to put every player on equal footing to be able to compare them easier, then second to break down the statistics and playing time to give different levels of focus to each area. For example, ultimately the whole point of hockey is to score goals, so players who are good in that area should be important to clubs (therefore G’s are given a higher value than A’s) and the scoring rates vary greatly when a team is at even strength, a power play, or penalty killing so those ice times shouldn’t be treated the same. Makes sense, though I can’t say I truly understand the calculations that go into these adjustments…which does give my logical brain a bit of a problem. Nothing that can’t be overcome though, as I am a huge fan of the Expected Goals metrics and I couldn’t actually calculate those on my own either.

The first True Value stat on the graphics below will be TV, which might be my favourite because it projects a player’s point total if they all played an equal of 10 minutes per game, while using Mullayo’s new goal and assist values. Next up will be the True Value Age Adjusted (TVA) category that which can show what players are still on the rise and who is on or heading for a decline (once again based on 10 min/gm).

The True Value Equivalent (TVe) basically does the same thing as the NHLe, as it projects how the player would have done with a full 82 games based on the average ice time they actually played that season. Next up he used those two stats to create the Differential Equivalent (DIFe) metric with the calculation of NHLe – TVe before giving us his final metric, Even Strength Equivalent (EVe). This stat uses the goals & assist values to tell us how many points they could have scored if they played all of their ice time per game at even strength.

Now we get to the metrics that I have added to the review, which are all limited to Even Strength play. The reason for that is smarter people than I have already done the work to discover that 5 on 5 play is the best factor to use if you are trying to predict future success. In particular, an NHL club’s 5 on 5 Expected and Actual Goals stats for the regular season can provide a good clue as to the likelihood that they end up lifting up Lord Stanley’s Cup in the playoffs. Over the past 11 campaigns the eventual winners finished in the top 6 of Expected Goals 7 times and only once has the team had a negative rating (Washington Capitals – 2017-18 – 46.96%). The worst rating after that was the 52.09% for the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020-21. When it comes to Actual Goals, no NHL team has lost the scoring battle at 5 on 5 in the regular season and go on to win it all. The worst ratings in the past 11 seasons were 52.4% for the 2024-25 Florida Panthers and the 2017-18 Washington Capitals. When it comes to the playoffs, surprisingly 2 squads have lifted the Cup while losing the 5 on 5 Expected Goals battle in the post-season, the 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins with 48.29% and the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues with 48.15%. Yet the worst Actual Goals % was the 2016-17 Penguins again with a 53.19%, so all the winners ended up on top in even strength scoring.

The first one I added is Points Per Minute (PTS/MIN), which basically tells us the rate a player scores at 5 on 5. Helpful to me, yet I’ll admit that it does produce a value that doesn’t immediately tell you much. Somewhat related are the next two stats, Goal Percentage (G%) and Points Percentage (PTS%), which show what part of their point totals came at even strength. We round out with another scoring metric in Individual Point Percentage (IPP), which tells us how often the player is directly involved (get on the scoresheet) in goals their teams score when they are on the ice (5 on 5).

Okay we are almost done, only 4 more categories to go. I have already mentioned Expected Goals Percentage (xG%) and this metric is calculated to tell us if the player or team created more scoring chances than their opposition. They get to this figure using decades of historical data to come up with the likelihood that an average player would score on an average goalie from various places on the ice and under various conditions (passes prior to shot, angle to net, etc). I also talked about Actual Goals Percentage (aG%) and this doesn’t require any projection since it is calculated by taking actual goals scored and allowed to give us a figure. The Goal-Expected Goal Differential Percentage (G-xG Diff%) just shows us whether a player was on for more Actual than Expected Goals.

All of the above metrics are different tools that I can use to compare players and potentially use to see if they are in agreement with who the True Value stats are highlighting. In Mullayo’s article introducing us to the TV metrics he posed the question of who is more valuable…Mark Scheifele or Brandon Hagel, Kyle Connor or Cutter Gauthier? Well, ignoring any age differences and solely focusing on last season’s performance, I thought these 4 players would provide a good vehicle to take my readers through all these different statistics to find out what each of them says. That way, you can determine on your own which stats you will focus on in your own research.

To kick things off, let us take a look at the top 25 players from the 95 in our review according to the TV stat (projected 10 mins of ES play per game).

As you can see, the TV stat doesn’t just mirror what the point totals are telling us, as many players changed positions. Scheifele had the 5th most points in the group, yet sits in 9th. Connor went from the 9th most points to drop all the way to 24th. Hagel was 18th in scoring, yet rose all the way to 6th, while Gauthier was 23rd in points but finished 11th in the TV metric. Because Mullayo’s new stats reward goals more than assists, you might be worried that the players with the most red lights lit this past season would finish at the top of TV…yet that is also not the case. The leading snipers in our group were Nathan MacKinnon (53) and Cole Caufield (51), yet they ended up 3rd & 7th respectively in the TV category. Probably the only surprise on this list would be the inclusion of Anthony Mantha, but he is coming off a truly exceptional campaign so it is likely warranted. We will keep an eye on him as we move through the stats too.

My own simple attempt to put all the players on an equal footing was the PTS/MIN (ES) metric, easily calculated by taking total even strength points and dividing it by total even strength ice time. While the result is a very miniscule figure, I think it still points out which players are very dangerous offensively when playing at 5 on 5. Here is how the Top 25 looks when the spreadsheet is sorted by this stat:

Nikita Kucherov was able to still hold onto the top spot, but fellow superstar Connor McDavid fell from 2nd to 15th when it comes to even strength scoring. Interestingly, the players Mullayo suggested swapping finished very close to each other in this metric as Hagel slightly edged Scheifele in even strength scoring, while Connor had a similar lead on Gauthier. I always knew that Brandon was an even strength stud, but Mark had a fantastic year last season too despite the Winnipeg Jets’ overall woes. And once again, Mantha makes an appearance high up on the list, with the 6th best rating in our group for 5 on 5 scoring pace.

Overall, the numbers actually show just how difficult it is to score goals in the NHL at even strength, since when you do the math you discover that the top 25 range from beating the opposing tenders once every 16.47 to 27.03 minutes. That means that it is very difficult to be on the ice for a 5 on 5 goal every single game because less than 20 players received more than 20 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time per game (a pt/gm at even strength is something that Macklin Celebrini did). You may also have picked up that the TV stat did a good job of picking out good goal scorers at even strength, as only 6 players fell out from its Top 25 and Anton Frondell had only a small sample size to work with (12 gms) so his Pts/Min data could be inflated.

Our next graphic includes the G%, PTS%, and IPP metrics, though I have kept the spreadsheet sorted by the Top 25 TV ratings.

The Goals & Points % stats aren’t hugely valuable on their own, as a very high rating likely just means that you aren’t getting powerplay time. Yet when used in conjunction with other metrics, they can provide an insight into whether a player is using man advantages to pump up their numbers. Not that lighting lamps on the PP is a bad thing….but it could be depending on how you play at other times in the game.

Typically, you will see the really good snipers finish with a G% less than 60% since they tend to take advantage of the extra ice man advantages provide. So it is not surprising that Scheifele, a set up man mainly, has a 69.44% rating….although I was not expecting to see Connor at 64.1%. That shock continued when I discovered that the True North sniper has never really relied on the PP to score a lot of his goals, with the finisher role recently being held by Gabriel Vilardi on Winnipeg’s #1 unit.

When it comes to PTS%, Hagel has the lead with 66.22% at ES (49 pts), slightly edging out Scheifele’s 63.11% (65 pts). Connor (55 pts) & Gauthier (41 pts) were almost tied with 59.78% & 59.42% respectively. And who was it that held that best PTS% rating in the Top 25? That would be Mantha’s very impressive 73.44% (47 pts). Six of the players above scored more than half of their points outside of 5 on 5 play with McDavid’s 42.03% (58 pts) being the lowest, however he was joined by the likes of Mark Stone (45.21% – 33 pts), Jack Hughes (45.46% – 35 pts), Nick Suzuki (48.51% – 49 pts), Seth Jarvis (43.94% – 29 pts), & Sebastian Aho (45% – 36 pts).

Finally we get to the IPP statistic, which tells us what percentage he was involved in of all the goals the player’s team scored when they were on the ice this year at 5 on 5. Again, not hugely valuable on its own, but it can show you who is a play driver, who is a helpful passenger, and who is just not making an impact in the offensive zone. When you look at the top 10 players in this category for the Winnipeg Jets this past season (via Natural Stat Trick), you will see the True Northers’ best play driver (Scheifele) is up near the top.

Cole Koepke led the way with a 84.21% rating and fellow bottom sixer Morgan Barron’s 80% is also up there, potentially suggesting that if they were given more ice time or better linemates, their output might actually increase to help their team even more. IPP is another stat to support that Cole Perfetti is a better player than some of the Jets’ fans give him credit and also shows us that while Connor’s 72.97% is still good….he is not nearly as good at driving play as Scheifele is (82.28%). Surprisingly, Jonathan Toews (82.61%) was up there, getting involved in most of the limited goals his lines managed to score.

Going back to the spreadsheet above the most recent graphic, the Top 25 players in our group include 6 that have large playmaker ratings (above 80%) and they include our own Scheifele, who finished 4th behind the likes of Celebrini (84.93%), Drake Batherson (84.09%), & David Pastrnak (83.08%). Twelve more finished in the 70-79% range, with all of Connor, Hagel (74.24%), & Gauthier (74.55%) in that group. When I sort the entire spreadsheet by the IPP category, Celebrini falls to 3rd place behind Matthew Knies (86.36%) and Calum Ritchie (94.12%).

Up to now, we haven’t really looked at anything other than offensive based statistics. Well our final 4 categories will change that by adding in a little defense to our review. While the Expected (xG%) & Actual Goal Percentage (aG%) stats do look at your club’s scoring chances/actual goals created, they take into consideration the scoring chances/actual goals allowed too. Also included in the graphic below are the G-xG Diff% and REL xG% metrics, which has been expanded to show the top 47 in our group based on the TV stat.

I have highlighted the players with a negative xG% or aG% above to show us which ones are winning the expected & actual goal battles when they are on the ice. Fifteen of the 47 skaters (31.9%) ended up on the wrong end of the xG% metric, while only ten of 47 (21.3%) ended up losing the actual goal race. That decrease from expected to actual is not a surprise though, since the stat is based on average shooters, which most, if not all, of the above players are better than.

In terms of Expected Goals at even strength, Hagel (60.1%) clearly outshines Scheifele (48%) & Connor (48.1%), while Gauthier (52.3%) is in the middle. Out of the full 95 skaters in our review, Mark Jankowski was tied for 1st with 60.1% while players like Mark Stone (59.3%), Jack Eichel (58.3%), Jack Drury & MacKinnon (57.6%) round out the top 6. Former Winnipeg Jet Nik Ehlers is also up there with a 57.4% last season, while both Adam Lowry (55.2%) & Cole Perfetti (52.8%) were solid in 2024-25. Of the players the True Northers may receive from the Buffalo Sabres in any Connor Hellebuyck trade, Josh Norris finished with the best xG% rating at 52.7%, while Noah Ostlund was at 52.1%, Ryan McLeod at 51.2%, and Jack Quinn at 47.6%.

Thirty of the 95 players involved ended up losing the Actual Goal battle at 5 on 5 (31.6%), which includes the Ducks’ Gauthier by the narrowest of margins (49.5%). Hagel was once again the clear leader in the aG% category with a very impressive 64.1%, which put him 7th out of the full 95 players. The top 6 included #1 MacKinnon (70.4%), Martin Necas (69.2%), Anthony Cirelli (67.4%), Norris (67.3%), Suzuki (64.9%), and Kucherov (64.2%). Once again Lowry & Perfetti’s 24-25 campaigns stood out, with their 59.2% to 61.8% aG ratings having them in 12th & 21st respectively. Both Scheifele (52%) & Connor (51%) finished on the right side of the aG stat despite being sub-50% in the xG one, yet that still left them slightly below the midway mark in the group of 95. The other Sabres players put up the following: Ostlund (61.4%), Quinn (56.7%), & McLeod (56.4%).

Neither of the above stats are really comparable to the True Value metrics, since xG% & aG% are talking about both ends of the ice while TV is focusing on who puts pucks into nets. Yet used in conjunction, it should give management a good idea on whether a player may fit a particular opening they have in their line ups. For example, with our Jets and their desperate need to find offense after last year’s miserly goal output. If you are of the idea that Winnipeg needs to play Vilardi with Perfetti on the 2nd line, there is an opening on the RW of the 1st unit since Alex Iafallo clearly isn’t up to those duties. One of the main rumoured players coming back in a potential Helly trade is Quinn, who has shown the ability to score with a 20 goal & 51 point campaign under his belt. Yet, the sub-50% xG numbers he put up with Buffalo suggest he may not be an excellent fit along side Scheifele & Connor, who also struggle to get more scoring chances than they give up. The others like Norris, McLeod, & Ostlund all put up solid figures this past year….and all four of them ended up scoring more actual goals than expected. That is something you want to see when your team needs goals because it suggests that they are an above average shooter or else they should have performed worse than they did (as shown by the xG-aG Diff% stat, a positive suggests sniper & a negative is more likely than not to be attached to a level of stone handedness). For example, Perfetti’s 24-25 season saw him end with a -0.1% and that pretty much aligns with him having a very average shot. Iafallo was worst than that last year with a -4.2% and I’m sure most of us will agree with that bottom six scoring touch rating for him. Though a positive number doesn’t always mean a great scoring touch, as Lowry finished with a +2.4% in 2024-25 that likely can be explained by his being better than average defensively to make up for the lack of mitts.

I know that this article has gotten excessively long at this point, but with one more stat to look at….we might as well plod on. The Relative Expected Goals% (REL xG%) is a handy thing because negative xG% & aG% doesn’t always mean the player is bad. Sometimes it means that they are on a horrible team that has to spend way too much time defending. This is when the REL xG% can come in handy. For example, talented youngster Celebrini ended up with a 49.6% xG rating last season, yet the REL xG% stat tells us that he was 3.1% better than his average Shark teammate. That indicates that as San Jose improves as a team, Maclin’s xG numbers should also go up. If you are looking for solid 2 way players, here is the spreadsheet of the top 47 players in the REL xG% category, which ranges from elite to average defender options:

Probably fitting that Hagel (+9.5%) is sitting at #1 on our final graphic, as it seems like he has been there all article long. Connor (+0.8%) & Scheifele (+0.6%) are hurt by their poor xG% numbers, but they always seem to manage to win the aG battle each season thanks to their better than average finishing skills. Gauthier (+1.4%) finished slightly above our two Jets, while 3 of the potential Buffalo targets (Ostlund, Norris, & McLeod) finished in the +1.5% to +2.9% range.

RECAP

Mullayo’s TV stat made him suggest the whole Mark Scheifele–Brandon Hagel and Kyle Connor–Cutter Gauthier comparison that ran through this article and when I checked that against my favoured metrics, the scales fell on the same side. Of my key 6 categories including TV, Pts/Min, IPP, xG%, aG%, and REL xG, the Lightning’s Hagel ended up winning 5 of them over Scheifele. The other match up was a bit closer, as Connor managed to win 2 of 6 over Gauthier….but both victories were by narrow margins.

Therefore statistically, any proposed swap of either Winnipeg player should be accepted. However, when I take position into it, I just couldn’t really recommend trading the Jets’ only top six center for a winger. Yet I could definitely see the benefit of moving Connor for either of Gauthier or Hagel…though I can’t really see Anaheim moving on from the young talent unless cap space becomes an issue in the future or Cutter’s contract ask becomes unreasonable. Then maybe KFC’s $12M/yr deal might look attractive instead of something much closer to $20M. I really don’t know what Tampa Bay would do if the True North sniper was dangled in a deal to them but they just might be willing to give up Hagel plus to get it done. All very unlikely….but certainly would be worth considering if the opportunity arose.

Overall I am very impressed with Mullayo’s work, despite my constant questioning of things during the development of the TV metrics. The “apples to apples” approach used in the basic TV stat is excellent and while I don’t think it will get me to dump my Pts/Min metric, it would be a welcome companion. The EVe stat also captures my attention which is probably understandable since I’ve already explained why I love metrics that deal with even strength play. Unfortunately the length of this article didn’t allow me to dwell on that TV stat, you can see the data at the bottom of the original article (link near the top of article).

The TVA category provides some promise, as it sort of is trying to predict the future for these players (will they see their production increase or decrease?). Once again, I didn’t really discuss this metric but that is mainly because there is nothing to compare it to. It is talking about next year and we just don’t know how that will play out yet….so this will be put in the Check Back Later stack to see what 2026-27’s TV numbers say.

Too bad that Garret Hohl is no longer a member of AIH because he actually has the background in hockey analytics to provide useful feedback on the TV metrics. I do follow his blog called The Five Hohl which offers a statistical look at the Winnipeg Jets, but only paid members can post comments so I can’t prompt him to check it out. I can’t recall his entire history, but believe he has worked with or collaborated with some of the biggest hockey analytic people in the NHL (like the Canes’ GM Eric Tulsky). But hopefully impressing me and the rest of AIH is enough for now and maybe we can work out a way to get Garret to check out Mullayo’s articles.

Congrats to those that made it to the end. As always, Mullayo & I would love comments, critiques, or questions about anything in this article or about the Winnipeg Jets. Hoping everyone in our hemisphere is enjoying summer…we are only 6 weeks away from the Young Prospects tournament where the True North prospects will play a pair of contests on Sept 13th & 14th. Looking forward to watching Viggo Bjorck and the rest of the kids.

**am still planning on a much shorter article looking at the players TV identified in True Value Targets and Kill Power. So come back for that after you recover from all that reading you just did.**

Tenei koutou katoa, It’s your tenacious Kiwi limpet, back for another number crunch.

If you missed the first article, True Value: An Apples vs Apples Scouting Tool, it goes into detail about how I went about creating the True Value metric, so please click the link to give it a read.

Last week, I thought my True Value (TV) metric found a gem in Alex Newhook, who I wrongly assumed was undervalued. Turns out MTL has him on their 2nd line, according to Daily Faceoff, as LW, so his value is probably more than I originally anticipated. And in my opinion, he’s at the right level for his talent.

This got me thinking about possible tiers of forwards. There are four lines on a team, each has about 100 players across the league (32 x 3 =96). However, it’s actually like a pyramid in terms of players who can play on those lines.
Last year the league used 940 players. I know because I trawled through all their TOI statistics, so you will never have to…

1ST LINE: TV = 30 plus points.
TOI: 18-23 mins approx.
Worth: Multiple first round picks.
Let’s say there are 80-120 1st line ready players in the league. Sadly, it’s not spread evenly with 3 each, but good teams stockpile 4 or 5 and bad teams have 1-2, we arguably have 2, plus Vilardi.

2ND LINE: TV = 24-30 points.
TOI: 15-18 mins approx.
Worth: Approximately a first round pick.
Now we go to the 2nd line. lets say there are 100-150 talents ready for the 2nd line. We have 1-2 Cole Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi. Although, that’s dubious as TV slightly prefers Adam Lowry and Morgan Barron because of their doghouse PK minutes.

3RD LINE: TV = 18-25 points.
TOI: 11-15 mins approx.
Worth: a 3rd-5th round pick.
Now this is the departure point. There are probably 200-300 3rd liners in the league, AHL, overseas or amongst ascending young talents. Alex Iafallo is a tweener on the cusp with TV of 19.2 pts.
Plenty of these to pick from. Which is why the likes of Iafallo, Vladislav Namestnikov and Nino Niederreiter are now expendable. Might as well chance your arm on a young player with more potential upside, since they’re so plentiful.

4TH LINE: TV = 12-20.
TOI: 8-11 mins approx.
Worth: 6th-7th round pick.
There are probably 500+ guys who could fill roles here, and that’s the distinction. Teams fit players that fill their overall deficiencies in even strength and special teams, such as large size, good defenders, fast skaters, etc. Or players that suit the style of hockey that occurs in the playoffs. 3rd and 4th liners are common and you get them to fill roles such as PK, shutting down other teams’ top 6’s, fighter, etc. in an attempt to repair team faults.

Which brings me to TVs most useful usage: I think it’s finding 2nd liners.
Any idiot can see a 1st liner, you can see them from space, but trawling through 3rd and 4th liners looking for those gems that could step up is the sweet spot. So that’s what I’ve been doing, looking for undervalued, before they get promoted. It’s not hard as bottom liners get the worst shifts, which plays into the metric and masks their true potential.

Now that I have 120+ specially screened and carefully selected forwards, you can see who is scoring around Vilardi (TV 23.3), peak Perfetti (TV 21.3), peak Lowry (TV 25.6 pts), Barron (TV 24 pts), then get out and actually scout them.

They hopefully cost a 3rd-line price, but if they can be a 2nd liner they’ll instantly double or triple in value.
Keep trading for these types, and at worst you’ve bought and paid for solid 3rd liners. And lord knows we could have used some of them last season, when only our 1st line were troubling the opposing goaltenders.

Also, these underrated 3rd and 4th liners, have usually been playing PK, which means on ES they’re probably decent defensively. Move them up to 2nd line, take them off PK and possibly put them on PP2 and presto you’ve augmented their output. Boost their minutes to the 2nd line norm, and there’s your 50 point 2nd line player.

Mostly because I finally figured out how, but also to assist in this article, I used the data set to make a few new metrics. TV takes the player down to ES which is great for comparing apples for apples. But what happens if we want to shine up the apples to see if we can find a gold one. Enter KPV, KP18 amd KPe. Variations on the basic idea of switching PK mins to PP mins. Something more like a 2nd liners profile.

Kill Power Value not only sounds kick-ass, but also conveniently shortens to KPV. A metric that takes a players PK minutes and converts them to PP mins, something that took quite a bit of time with a calculator, and was too hard to guestimate. It’s showing the potential of the player on a different team, where they would be valued higher. Good for looking at 3rd and 4th line worker bees with potential.

To that end, Kill Power 18 (KP18) normalises KPV to 18 mins for an approximate 2nd Line role. Thus the points typically go down for the 1st Liners and up for the 3rd and 4ths. KP18 allows you to compare everyone against each other as a 2nd liner.

Kill Power Equivalency (KPe) is KPV expressed with the standard NHLe goal and assist values. Basically its the expected NHLe rating after switching PK and PP times. With the exact same TOI they had this season. So wrong in my eyes, but it will still show who could improve from switching special teams. For example: Brandon Hagel from my earlier article, and actual hockey, now has an adjusted NHLe of 107.1pts in 2025, and 123.9pts NHLe in 2026.

MASSIVE DISCLAIMER: I have never knowingly watched these players before they popped up on my TV charts. Maths watched them and maths liked them. Furthermore, the list was compiled with only 2026 stats in mind. Only afterwards did I decide to chart a second earlier year. I imagine, a proper scouting department would have years of these types of scores charted.

Connor Dewar (TV 38.3 & 34.2 pts)
POS: 3rd line centre for Penguins.
Age: 27 years-old, born in Gilbert Plains, Manitoba.
Height/Weight: 5ft 10in, 187lb.
Contract: 2 x $2.25m
2024-25: 17 games, 4 goals, 3 assists.
2025-26: 78 games, 20 goals, 22 assists.

One that got away? Local lad Dewar had himself a breakout year at the Penguins.
He is one of the two big finds from the metric. His 34.2 pt TV score is just behind another Connor I’ve never seen play, Connor McDavid (TV 37.1), and Nathan Mackinnon (TV 34.4), who sadly I have seen too much of. He’s also one above Macklin Celebrini (TV 32.8).
Dewar is one who really benefits from changing PK to PP with an expected extra 3.7 goals and 11.4 pts total. That makes him a defensively sound 53pt centre. Now up his minutes from 13.9 to 18 and he’s an 80pt centre who defends.
Are his numbers an anomaly? There are 2 strong years, although, 2025 was a small sample size.
It doesn’t matter that much, he put up top 10 player in the league numbers. Even if he regresses 30%, you have a 50pt player at centre, who defends, and is from your hometown.
He seems to be a better goal scorer than passer by the looks. Great to me, but maybe not to a coach. Also, despite being an inch taller and 6 pounds heavier than wee Viggo, he is on the small side. Don’t know if he’s “short. but plays big“, or even what that means. Bring him home! He can pick up Jonah Woo on the way.
(KP18: 80.9 pts & 80.9 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 85%

Parker Kelly (TV 15.7 & 31 pts)
POS: 3rd line winger for Avs
Age: 27.5 years-old, Born in Lakelands, Minnesota
Height/Weight: 6ft 2in, 205lb.
Contract: 4 x $1.7m
2024-25: 80 games, 8 goals, 11 assists.
2025-26: 82 games, 21 goals, 14 assists.

This is the other big one. He stands out like a sore thumb. A 4th liner putting up 1st liner numbers.
Defensive LW had a FREAKISH breakout year with 35 points, including 21 goals, in only 12:42 mins/secs per game.
Led his team win hits with 177 hits, and 52 blocked shots. In 2025, it was 100 hits and 72 blocked shots. He’s more of a gamble, but the downside is a big, physical 3rd liner putting up 35 points and making hits left right and centre.
A punt I’d take, depending on the price. The aim is to find there guys while their org still thinks the breakout was a blip. Getting a guy like this as a throw in, in a bigger deal is a good way to disguise your unbridled interest. He’s basically a Winnipeg boy, bring him home!
(KP18: 38.8 pts & 70.7 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 65%

Ryan McLeod (TV 29.7 pts & 22.1 pts)
POS: 2nd or 3rd line centre for Sabres
Age: 27.4 years-old, born in Mississauga, Ontario.
Height/Weight: 6ft 3in, 207lb.
Contract: 4 x $5m
2024-25: 79 games, 22 goals, 33 assists.
2025-26: 81 games, 14 goals, 40 assists.

This guy could actually be gettable, and soon.
He could be the centrepiece of a Helly deal and I’m all for it. Weirdly scored 5 short-handed goals last season, easily the most in the league.
Was even better last year with TV of 29.7. Changing PK to PP in 2025 results in an expected extra 3.2 goals and 8.3 pts total. Or 3.5 goals and 9.1 pts total in 2026.
Tall, fast skater and a decent defender just not overly physical, more finesse – I heard somewhere. He ticks a lot of our boxes though. Hopefully a key piece in a Helly trade. Easy 2C for me. Already is. Despite the lower TV in 2026 (lack of goals), his KP18 is still 64pts.
(KP18: 70.7 pts & 63.8 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 95%

Bobby McMann (TV 28.9 & 28.4 = 25.8 30.7 pts)
POS: 3rd line winger for Penguins
Age: 30.1 years-old, born in Wainwright, Alberta.
Height/Weight: 6ft 2in, 217lb.
Contract: 1 x $1.5m
2024-25: 74 games, 20 goals, 13 assists.
2025-26: 78 games, 29 goals, 17 assists.
2025-26 (TOR): 60 games, 19 goals, 13 assists
2025-26 (SEA): 18 games, 10 goals, 4 assists

Another big journeyman. This one’s stats show maybe some growth, but more importantly plenty of stability. He’s older though, which also likely makes him easier to acquire.
Again, if the skating and defending checks out, I don’t see why not. Big body wing putting up 60 pts? Going, going gone! Sold, to the team over there with a bunch of midgets.
At the beginning of the month, I would have been all over him, but Chevy has the Midas touch at the moment, and I believe he can do, if not better, then younger at least.
(KP18: 62.9 pts & 61.8 = 51.4 & 71.1 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 65%

Justin Brazeau (TV 16.1 & 27.2 pts)
POS: 3rd line winger for Penguins
Age: 28.6 years-old, born in New Liskeard, Ontario.
Height/Weight: 6ft 6in, 232lb.
Contract: 1 x $1.5m
2024-25: 57 games, 10 goals, 10 assists.
2025-26: 64 games, 17 goals, 17 assists.

Big journeyman, who I guess parks the bus and gets greasy goals. That ticks a few boxes, but he seems injury plagued and maybe not the best skater? Again a guess. I’ve never seen him, and if I did, I would probably cross the street.
Still, a healthy season of 50pts and some intimidation wouldn’t go amiss.
(KP18: 40 pts & 61.8 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 35%

A.J. Greer (TV 16.5 & 27.2 pts)
POS: 3rd line winger for Panthers.
Age: 29.6 years-old, born in Joliette, Quebec.
Height/Weight: 6ft 3in, 224lb.
Contract: 1 x $1.5m
2024-25: 81 games, 6 goals, 11 assists.
2025-26: 78 games, 17 goals, 15 assists.

Another big journeyman.
Late bloomer or anomaly? That’s the argument the scout needs to sort out for most of these guys. As with almost everything, it’s probably a cross between the two. I err in favour of, if you’ve done something once you maybe do it again. Do it twice and it’s probably do it again.
(KP18: 34.1 pts & 54.3 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 25%

Ryan Poehling (TV 24.9 & 24.2 pts) – 3rd line centre for Anaheim
Age: 27.5 years-old, born in Lakelands, Minnesota.
Height/Weight: 6ft 2in, 205lb.
Contract: 3x $3.75m
2024-25: 68 games, 12 goals, 19 assists.
2025-26: 75 games, 11 goals, 25 assists.

Was a former first round pick I just found out, so that sucks… but 25th overall, so not even lottery. Youngish, biggish, fingers-crossed quickish, and he’s from Winnipeg-ish.
He scores lower in TV because his points are mostly assists. But that doesn’t bother you, he’s fine. His NHLe normalised to 18 mins is 71.6 pts and 74.9 pts respectively.
For some reason, the Ducks could do with some cap relief. I see a cheeky Danny Zhilkin, Brad Lambert, or even Brayden Yager trade?
(KP18: 62 pts & 59.8 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 65%

Mathieu Olivier (TV 22.3 & 26.2 pts)
POS: 3rd line centre for Columbus
Age: 29.3 years-old, born in Biloxi, Mississippi.
Height/Weight: 6ft 1in, 231lb.
Contract: 4 x $3m
2024-25: 82 games, 18 goals, 14 assists.
2025-26: 61 games, 15 goals, 11 assists.

Another big journeyman, same concerns about skating and age as most of the others. Note: I have deliberately steered away from those under 25, due to them being more coveted than thir actual worth. It’s like a probably losing lotto ticket is worth more to the holder than last week’s losing ticket.
Also, not a lot of PK time, so probably a marginal defender.
A low-end 2C, there for his shot-stopping stockiness. Id take him as a make-weight in a bigger trade, but wouldn’t rush to the bat-phone to get him in.
(KP18: 47 pts & 51.7 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 35%

*****

NOT MY RECOMENDATIONS: Possible Sabre targets in a Helly trade.

Jack Quinn (TV 18.8 & 23 pts)
POS: 2nd or 3rd line right wing for Sabres
Age: 24.8 years-old, born in Ontario.
Height/Weight: 5ft 11in, 185lb.
Contract: 2 x $3.75m
2024-25: 74 games, 15 goals, 24 assists.
2025-26: 81 games, 14 goals, 40 assists.

Young Perfetti-sized winger, his twin basically. Same height, same weight, same age-ish, same Ontario origin, same TV score. Could also be a piece in a Helly trade.
He’s like Perfetti-brand box of chocolates. You never know what you’ll get, but odds are one of them has to be to our taste. Overall, Quinn profiles as a 60 pt player with meh defence. I suspect most 2nd lines carry one of these guys .
(KP18 62 pts & 56.2 pts) Perf25=54.9pts
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 90%

Noah Ostlund (TV 20.7 pts)
POS: 3rd line centre/winger for Sabres
Age: 22.3 years-old, Born in Stockholm, Sweden
Height/Weight: 5ft 11in, 180lb.
Contract: ELC
2025-26: 60 games, 11 goals, 16 assists.

Promising with a 36.9 NHLe in his first season in NHL. If he adds weight, he could be good.
Didn’t play PK, so don’t know about his defence. But again could be a part of a Helly deal. Got a team leading plus-20 in the AHL, the year before.
(KP18: 45.4 pts)
2nd Line CERTAINTY: 35%

Honourable Mentions:

Kailer Yamamoto (TV 25.3), Adam Gaudette (TV 23.2 pts), Tye Kartye (TV 22.8 pts).

Thanks all for taking the time to read, I hope you’re not all having flashbacks to traumatic maths classes of the past. Let me hear it in the Comment section about what you think of these potential targets….should the Winnipeg Jets actively pursue any of them?

Next up, I believe BOJA will be looking at some of these same players from a different statistical perspective, and adding value with different filters. Should be interesting to see what the metrics he uses say about the 13 players.

While those things can go pretty smoothly between the club & player/agent at times….resulting in a short-term contract near the middle of the opposing asks. Yet…things can also get tense when a player has to listen to his team list off all the negative aspects of his playing abilities. So it was certainly pleasant news for True North fans when the media announced that the creator of the “Manitoba Miracle” had reached an agreement with the team prior to it even getting to that point.

Chevy & agent Pat Brisson were able to find common ground on a 5 year $30M deal for the 24 yr old Perfetti, paying the talented set up man $6M a season, which runs up to the 2031 off-season when he will still be 29. The Canadian winger had expressed a desire to stay long-term in the Peg…so maybe he’ll even crack a smile today at the thought of all those cold winters heading his way? If not, the boost to his bank account should certainly do it ($2M signing bonus). Coming off a 2 year bridge deal paying $3.25M a season, the cheques from the Winnipeg Jets will get quite a bit larger in 2027-28. Here is the full breakdown of Fetts’ new contract via PuckPedia:

*****

From Cheveldayoff’s side, I do like the above deal when it comes to future flexibility. With only a pair of seasons with trade protection (6 team no go list in yrs 3 & 4) and none in the final season, Winnipeg should have no problem moving on from the contract if that becomes necessary in the future. Not that is very likely. There may be some in the Jets’ fanbase who won’t be happy with the thought of paying a player who is coming off a 32 pt campaign that much for that long….and I will admit that I am not one of those. Let me explain.

Winnipeg’s front office hasn’t done the former 10th overall selection (2020) any favours by never having enough top six talent to fill out their roster. Yet despite that, Cole had a breakout campaign in 2024-25 along side talented Nikolaj Ehlers & bottom sixer Vladislav Namestnikov, amassing a career high 50 pts. An ankle injury during pre-season derailed the start of last season for Perfetti, causing him to miss games and looking slower than normal even when he did return. To add to the issues, the young winger was initially thrown together with veterans Jonathan Toews & Gustav Nyquist…and their lack of finishing abilities (combined for 12 goals on the year) resulted in only 7 pts in the first 24 contests (on a 24 pts full season pace). Fortunately as the year progressed, Fetts was given slightly better linemates until he was ultimately paired with the slick hands of Gabriel Vilardi and bottom six grinder Adam Lowry. Therefore, from January to when the Jets finally called it quits for the season (with 4 games left to play), Perfetti was averaging 0.568 pts/gm…or 51 pts in a full campaign.

So in my mind, the Ontario born forward is already capable of putting up 2nd line production and he has never actually been paired with 2 equally talented linemates. At this point it seems the Jets are relying on rookie Viggo Bjorck to possibly help Cole out in that area, yet even if he pans out there is still only 5 true top six talents on Winnipeg’s roster. Therefore…help may or may not be on the way. Either way, with the rapidly rising cap, as long as Perfetti continues to stay healthy and produce like he has….the contract should provide the club good value. Now….if they could actually get a couple bigger players with sniping abilities to skate along side him….the deal might even look like a bargain.

Perfetti’s Career Stats Via PuckPedia

*****

While a lot of people will focus on the Points categories in the graphic above, my attention is always drawn to the small winger’s Goals Percentage (GF%), Expected Goals (xG%) Percentage, & Corsi For Percentage (CF%) columns.

The stats are unfortunately for all situations, so less valuable to me since Perfetti will get a boost from his PP time without suffering a negative from the PK (because he doesn’t get deployed in those situations). However, they still reflect the theme that the 5 on 5 stats say…which is that when #91 is on the ice, Winnipeg generally is expected to and actually does outscore the opposition. This past disaster of a season was the first time that Fetts has ever lost the GF% battle and I have already provide many reasons (excuses?) for why that happened (he also had a career worst shooting % and didn’t help himself in that way, so hopefully that rebounds).

Another thing that always catches my eye as well is the Relative Expected Goals For Percentage (RELXGF%) stat. What this tries to tell us is whether a player was a better option for the coaching staff than his teammates, by comparing the xG stats and determining how much higher or lower a specific skater is than the roster average (+/-). In Perfetti’s case, he has been a better option for the head coach in all of his seasons except the President’s Trophy winning campaign…..when Lowry’s line bumped up the xG numbers by quite a bit as they dominated the opposition (54% xG & 64.7% aG) to take over the 2nd place spot behind the Jets’ top forward unit. Yet even then Fly & Fetts weren’t far behind those figures, with a 53.3% xG and a 63.2% aG in 2024-25.

So overall, while I am aware that Cole’s small stature, lack of goal scoring skills, & skating are negatives that stop will him from ever becoming a game changing player for Winnipeg….the benefits from his strong 2 way game, on ice vision, & passing skills will outweigh those if the front office can surround the forever scowling Perfetti with some linemates that are good at putting the puck in the net (too bad there wasn’t a metric to help identify possible targets, eh?).

Well now that you have had to listen to me drone on about how I feel about the signing….lets hear it in the Comment section your thoughts on the signing…..but before I go, I thought I would take a quick look at the Winnipeg Jets’ cap situation now that the final RFA has put pen to paper.

With the signing, the True Northers now have filled up their 23 man NHL roster with 13 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders for a total bill of $98,468,332 for ownership. Chevy still has a bit of wiggle room as the club has around $5.5M to try and improve the roster, though it is looking like there will have to be a departure to open up a slot to fit in a newcomer.

That group includes a single player that will be waiver exempt in 2026-27 in Swedish defenseman Elias Salomonsson, but doesn’t capture recent 8th overall selection, Viggo Bjorck (current slotted in the AHL). Young Salo will unfortunately miss the start of the season due to shoulder surgery, so a roster spot will open there before the coaching staff will have to decide who they want to try and sneak through waivers to go to the Manitoba Moose to bring up the talented rookie.

*****

With the cap rising all the time and the ability to shed Nino Niederreiter & Namestnikov’s $7M at the end of the season, I don’t really see cap space being an issue for the Jets in the near future. With the uncertainty surrounding goalie Connor Hellebuyck, there could be an opportunity to make some additions via trade (possibly Perfetti’s old Junior linemate Ryan McLeod?). Yet with Bucky’s $8.5M/yr salary going out in any prospective trade, it would allow Winnipeg to take up as much as $14M in contracts coming back. If not, the cap space could be used at the deadline to add if our team is in the wildcard race or help out a cap space strapped playoff team by taking on a contract for a perk.

We are just under 2 months away from the Prospects tourney in Ontario (Sept 13th/14th) and just over 2 months away from the Jets’ first pre-season game (Sept 19th). So lots of time for changes to happen….or this could be the team that takes the ice when the puck drops on the NHL’s 2026-27 season. I think I know where most of our hopes lie.

Now let those comments fly!!!

Kia ora koutou, it’s everyone’s favourite Kiwi (*who is also a fan of the Winnipeg Jets, lives in Sydney, and now writes for Arctic Ice Hockey).

I’ve been making sports metrics for many years now. I started working out with the NFL Combine, then NBA Draft scouting, some MLB metrics (including fixing OPS), and now a few for the NHL Draft and general scouting.

Disclaimer: Metrics are good for crunching numbers and scouring large data sets for possible value. They use maths to find targets to be scouted/investigated/vetted afterwards. Ideally you would have years worth of these metrics, to chart growth with. This metric is only using last season’s data, and there are always anomalies in small sample sizes. So bear that in mind, because I don’t and generally just go gung-ho all-in.

Scheifele for Hagel…done!
KFC for Gauthier…done!

Why? Read on…

Why make a True Value (TV) metric?
So we can compare apples with apples. Because I feel hockey’s current metrics have nothing that is useful to me, apart from NHLe (NHL Equivalency)…and it’s deeply flawed.

NHLe in a nutshell, is the sound idea to compare scoring between leagues. They set the bar at 100 with the NHL and gave every other pro and junior league in the world a lesser value.
So far so good. To predict how well a player in say the KHL does, NHLe divides the player’s total points by the amount of games they actually played and multiplies this by the KHL value, and finally .82 to adjust for the 82 game season in the NHL.

This gives you a guesstimate about how many points this player would produce playing in 82 games at the same TOI (Time On Ice) as they already had in their league, except for the NHL level. Good for the draft and charting a prospect’s growth over successive seasons, if the values are correct…yet the NHLe calculations include major oversights, in my opinion.

1) GOALS: Because when it comes to points: Goals are apples and assists are not even oranges, they’re appleseeds, because the come from the event that is the apple. They don’t even count on the scoreboard at all. If your club scores 4 goals with 8 assists and the opposition score 5 goals with 5 assists, you don’t win 12-10. You aren’t even happy with a moral victory. You lost, and you know it, because deep down you know goals are much more important.

2) TOI: is SOOO VERY OBVIOUSLY important, yet completely overlooked entirely in NHLe. Player A gets 2 goals every 20 mins TOI per night, and Player B gets 2 goals in 10 mins TOI a night. Who is better? They’re the same in NHLe, and that’s stupid.

3) TOI: Even Strength, Power Play, and Penalty Killing are apples, oranges and bananas. Not really comparable. PK is time spent defending, producing next to no goals. PP is time spent scoring, producing a LOT more goals per minute than ES (Even Strength). Bad teams > good teams on PP. ES is pretty much neutral. An arm-wrestle producing an average amount of goals. Good teams > bad teams at ES.

These are tantamount to the fundamental mistakes baseball made for a century. So I made my own metric to try and address these issues…..and called it True Value (TV).

TV = True Value points produced, adjusted to use new goal and assist values (extrapolated to 82 games like NHLe), but normalised to 10 mins per game. Why 10 mins? Because it’s easy to guesstimate and multiply. He plays 20 mins, double it. He plays 16 mins, times 1.6…etc.

What TV does is allow you to compare apples with apples. Players plain and simple. No benefits of PP, no penalisation for being on the PK. So basically, it is as if every player you look at played 82 games per season and only received 10 mins of ES ice time every game. Every one is thus on an equal footing.

Also, it’s not limited to the NHL, you can put any player in the world in the metric and just lower the level from 82, using the NHLe values (obsolete as they may be). It fixes all the flaws of NHLe (apart from the values which I’m still working on). Thus it’s ultra useful for draft scouting. Also in an upcoming article, I found a use for it in trying to identify targets the Winnipeg Jets should focus on in trades and free agency.

TVa – A variation which is simply TV age-adjusted to be an indicator of how soon this player will decline (old), and also how much this player will likely cost/be valued (young and productive). Although the draft version has a different age adjustment focus, to be explained later. You can look at it as the player’s approximate value in the trade market.

EXAMPLE: This season, rising Anaheim Ducks’ star Cutter Gauthier had 41 goals and 28 assists for 69 points in 76 games. Extrapolated to 82 games this is 74.4 pts and THAT becomes his NHLe 74.4 for the 2025-26 NHL campaign.

Here is where it gets wildly different.

1) TV values goals and assists DIFFERENTLY, because they are simply not the same value. Goal > Assist.
There are two easy ways to do this correctly.
A) Keep assists = 1 and raise goals. Making more overall points.
B) Keep goals = 1 and lower assists. Making more overall points.
C) Not correct, but closer to the current system, find the points ratio of goals to assists and reduce both of the A option values until 1 goal + 1 assist = 2 points again. Easier for the everyday fan to understand. Making similar overall points.

Initially I went with option A. The upshot then was Gauthier accrued a TV (True Value real points) of 97.4 pts in 76 games at an average TOI of 17 mins 15 secs. That is the raw re-calculation.

2) Now TV separates his average TOI, which was 17.15 secs (17.25 mins as a percentage) into PP, PK, and Even Strength and values them differently as well. The easiest way to do this, is to adjust the TOI up or down, so this now becomes TOIa (Time on Ice adjusted) of 19.54 mins (as a percentage again).

3) Now TV normalises down to 10 mins to make it easy to extrapolate or compare with others. Once this is factored in, presto Gauthier had a 63 TV (meaning 63 True Value points having been scored, after conversion to 82 games at 10 mins TOI). To normalise for minutes, divide the total you want by the actual minutes then multiply by how many you want, in this case 10.

4) As I mentioned, I initially went with Option A above and Gauthier received a TV of 63 points per 10 mins over a fictional 82 games. Multiplied by his TOI, 17.25 mins that would be 109 total points, compared to the current systems 74.4 NHLe. Since I figured this +40 pts would be difficult for the casual fan to fathom, I eventually went with Option C above, which reduces the truth to something more palatable, thus a TV of 39.9. Multiplied by 17.25 mins that would be 69 total points. Coincidentally, he same as he scored in 76 games, but at 82 games…though adjusted down to only ES to see the plain player.

He’s actually really highly rated because of the 41 goals. The players on the chart below with slightly higher ratings, David Pastrnak (TV 40.1) and Mark Scheifele (TV 40.2), both had at least 100 pts last year. So Gauthier is not just somebody that you used to know!

So would you swap Gauthier for KFC now?

He’s 6.5 years younger, scored more goals, and hopefully on a cheaper contract (but who knows now after his center got $18m AAV)? He’s already ahead of prime KFC in production at 22, what’s his ceiling then?

How about Scheifele for Hagel?

Again he’s 5.4 years younger, he plays over 2mins PK and so he can probably defend better. Now if we take this natural scorer off the PK and transfer those minutes to PP, the expectancy is he would score 6.5 more goals and 17.5 pts total. That would take his NHLe up to 118 pts for the 2025-26 campaign.

However, after SCOUTING only a little deeper, it seems Hagel is quite unique as in he’s worse on PP than ES. In 2025, at 2.67 mins of PP, he scored no goals and only 11 assists, despite scoring 35 goals and 55 assists total in 82 actual games. In 2026, 5 goals and 7 assists across 71 games at 2.25 mins, after scoring a total 36 goals and 38 assists in the same time.
It turns out that (according to Puckpedia and DailyFaceOff) Hagel plays as a defender on their PP, and presumably all the points go to Nikita Kucherov (46 pts and 37 pts in PP 2025 and 2026 respectively), Jake Guentzel (28 pts and 30 pts) and Brayden Point (31 pts in 2025). In fact, last year Guentzel led the league in PP goals with 17, Point was tied for 2nd, with Leon Draisaitl with 16… Ahh! The joy of playing the PP with Kucherov, unless you’re Hagel. The special teams are killing his production.

Hagel is seemingly a 1st line talent, stuck on a 2nd line, and worse playing defender in PP, and also 2 mins on PK. Put on a team with way less talent (hint, hint), it seems he would thrive. He’s been 5th in ES goals (per 82 gms) for the last two years. This is a 100 pt player, languishing on a good team, let’s get him somewhere to shine!

This week, I spent some quality time with my calculator to look at almost 100 NHL players, including some of our Winnipeg Jets such as the previously mentioned Scheifele, along with his teammates Kyle Connor, Gabe Vilardi, Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti, Morgan Barron, & Alex Iafallo.

True Value Chart

*****

As for how our Jets fared, it’s as feared, sadly. Nothing we didn’t already know here. The ‘Untouchable Line’ of Scheifele, Connor and Vilardi went their merry way, putting up points for fun. Unfortunately no-one else did.

I even had to enter Lowry and Perfetti’s 2025 season stats to get a better/truer picture of their likely output. I did that for a couple of other players to see their previous season against last season I earmarked this by putting the year after their christian name, hence Adam25 and Cole25. Barron was fine, TV likes Bear and Lowry more than other scouting metrics would, because they play decent PK time.

Iafallo also didn’t have a down year, but unfortunately his average is below average. He is the cut-off point of usefulness for me. If there are young players with the same score, sure, they may have upside still.

No one else in the forwards was worth entering (this year), Nino and Vlad were on downers, the other oldies didn’t deliver and were sent gently into retirement, whilst the youngsters were all part-timers with very small sample sizes.

The defense, has been somewhat sorted, but the forwards remain an enigma wrapped in a riddle. The Untouchables are lording it over an island of misfit toys beneath. Before we can see a clearer picture, It feel like there are still missing pieces to be added to this jigsaw.

We’ll get into some players I really like in the next article who I would like to see Winnipeg’s front office target…it’s about practical applications of TV and player tiers.

*****

Thanks guys for taking this journey with me!! Any kudos, queries, or criticisms….just leave a post below in the Comment Section and I’ll address them when the sun’s up in my part of the world.

It seems that our newest member, Mullayo, is rather fond of the work of GM Kevin Cheveldayoff on the blueline….as I quickly received an email explaining why the impact goes beyond just adding the one d-man I covered, Mario Ferraro, to the mix. Since I am still waiting to hear back from the guy running our little website and Mullayo can’t express his opinions in his own article yet….I thought I would share his thoughts in this one as a sort of introduction to the AIH members.

While I may not agree with all of his assessments, it will probably be nice for you all to hear a different point of view on all things relating to the Winnipeg Jets. As you all know, I am a fan of the statistics side of hockey and definitely let them slant my perspective….yet I have finally run across someone who even puts more emphasis on the data….partly as a result of Mullayo’s unique situation. But I will let him tell you about all that before he gets into discussing Chevy’s work on the Jets’ backend this summer…..

*****

Hey all, I’m Mullayo and new to Arctic Ice Hockey, though I’ve been pestering the Jets Hockey Forum for a couple of months already.

I’ve been supporting the Jets for 3 years now. I must say it’s been a wild ride the last 2. As a Kiwi, living in Sydney, I mostly resort to watching those 10 min Youtube highlights. Local sports provider Kayo has the NHL, but only a couple of games a week. That year, seems like a long time ago, the one when we led from start to finish to earn the Presidents Trophy, they only played Winnipeg games twice – chalk up another small market injustice.

I played (although not Ice Hockey, Gridiron or Baseball) a lot of sports. In order pf years played from 30 to 3: Rugby, Soccer (30 years); Touch Rugby, Gaelic Football (15 years); Aussie Rules, Basketball, Futsal (10 years); Cricket, Indoor Netball (5 years); Softball, Rugby League, Indoor Cricket (3 years). I calculated the other day that I won approximately 100 adult championships, so I was competitive at least, sometimes the best.

Now I’m too old, battered and bruised, I can only pick a team and follow them. I’m particualrly interested in drafts and metrics – which I’ve been making for the NFL Combine and NBA Draft for a decade, and starting this week…..Ice Hockey.
Teams I now actively support include the NZ Warriors, Bolton Wanderers, Baltimore Orioles, Connecticut Sun, and the Winnipeg Jets of course. More nominally nowadays, I follow the Waikato Chiefs, GWS Giants, OKC Thunder, Wellington Phienic, All Blacks, Tall Blacks, Black Caps, All Whites… So if you want to discuss any of them, feel free…

My writing style may come across as abrupt and full of numbers – especially compared to the thoughtful and balanced BOJA, but I did go to the top journalism school in NZ, and was a journalist/editor for 7 or so years.

I like my articles to be anchored by facts, stats, lists and dates and then have some speculation or extrapolation. A preview beats a review in the journalism business. The art of journalism is answering the questions the everyday person would ask. Unfortunately, now I’m not getting paid, it’s more about me. Nowadays, I research and answer the questions I have, then collate them into an information package to share with anybody who cares and a lot that don’t.

Also, I’ve moved away from the mainstream style guide of writing out numbers 9 and under, because I’ve found numbers stick out and allow you to orientate in dense paragraphs, particulary when scanning or re-visiting to check on something. Variation in paragraph sizes is useful for that too.

I basically write what (and how) I want to read. So please make allowances, as I’m also from the opposite side of the world… Although, traditionally Canucks and Kiwis get along well, maybe because both have an annoying Big Brother (in both senses of the term)?

Enough with the introductions….time to take a look at Winnipeg’s defensive depth and compare it to last season’s:

Our D-fence is in disarray right?
Old, slow, overpaid – though that could also be said of the forwards to be fair…
DeMelo is 33 years-old and moves like molasses on a cold Winnipeg winter day. Morrisey is fine, but 31 years-old and only has two years left on contract (will he re-sign?), Pionk is coming off an injury and 30 years-old with 5-years left at $7m AAV – (used to be a lot until a few days ago).

So, is it panic stations for everyone?

Not necessarily… Chevy has brought in depth in the last week. Furthermore, there are reinforcements on the way coming up through the prospect pool. Some as soon as this season. Let’s take a deep breath and look at the new boys and the near boys on our defensive depth chart (** – recent additions).

———-RD————-
6ft 1in, 194lb, Dylan DeMelo (33.2 years-old)
6ft 1in, 190lb, Neal Pionk (30.9 years-old)
6ft 4in, 200lb, Jack St Ivany** (26.9 years-old)
6ft 0in, 194lb, Dysin Mayo** (29.9 years-old)
6ft 2in, 189lb, Elias Salmonsson (21.9 years-old)
6ft 3in, 195lb, Garrett Brown (22.3 years-old)
6ft 2in, 198lb, Alfons Freij (20.4 years-old)

———-LD————
6ft 0in, 195lb, Josh Morrisey (31.3 years-old)
6ft 4in, 216lb, Dylan Samberg (27.4 years-old)
6ft 0in, 205lb, Mario Ferraro** (27.8 years-old)
6ft 2in, 211lb, Henry Thrun** (25.3 years-old)
6ft 4in, 207lb, Haydn Fleury (30 years-old)
6ft 3in, 205lb, Isaac Phillips (24.9 years-old)
6ft 2in, 185lb, Sascha Boumedienne (19.4 years-old)
6ft 2in, 228lb, Noa Ta’amu** (18.2 years-old)
6ft 0in, 164lb, Alexander Taillefer** (18.5 years-old)

———Gone D————-

5ft 9in, 180 lb Jacob Bryson (28.7 years-old)
6ft 0in, 181 lb Ville Heinola (25.3 years-old)
6ft 2in, 225 lb Luke Schenn (36.7 years-old)
6ft 0in, 200 lb Collin Miller (33.6 years-old)

And of course 6’7″ 231 lb Logan Stanley, who was to Winnipeg what Godzilla was to Tokyo or King Kong to New York, a walking disaster. I don’t classify him as a D.

Now let’s dig a little deeper into the depth chart, see if we can unearth some nuggets of gold.

————–LD——————-

Haydn Fleury (6ft 4in, 207 lb)
Last season, Fleury, played 38 games for 4pts (8.6 NHLe) at minus-18. I’ve seen him described as a fast-skating Stanley. I can’t argue with that based on his stats. He turned 30 yesterday and thus will need replacing sooner than later. But maybe Winnipeg already did since Chevy brought in 3 players as replacement candidates. St. Ivany, Thrun, and now possibly even Mayo.

Henry Thrun (6ft 2in, 211 lb)

Thrun is probably a Moose to start the year, but also in that Fleury Insurance mold as a possible replacement 7th defender for the Jets. He is a true tweener, too good for the Moose, yet not good enough for 3rd pair. He is younger, bigger and probably better than Mayo, with more NHL games under his belt. He accrued a solid NHL of 17.1 (23 pts in 53 games) last season for the Toronto Marlies, on their way to a Calder Cup. At 25.2 years-old he still has upside. Another great get for Manitoba at the very least.

“A well balanced defenseman. Good puck mover that can shoot the puck well and plays smart defensively.“– Dobber Prospects

Isaak Phillips (6ft 3in, 205 lb)

Phillips is still not 25 years old (24.8), is he really worse than Fleury? Best AHL season of the Moose D with 29 pts in 67 games (10g +19a), for a 17.7 NHLe. That’s better than anybody brought in on a much worse offensive on the Jets. I think Winnipeg’s management is sleeping on Phillips. I feel he should have played more NHL games last year, to find out what we have. But that would have been tanking, unlike sticking with Fleury which was going for broke! And getting it.

“A depth defenseman with a good combination of size and skating ability. Has limited offensive upside but could provide some value on a bottom pairing.“– Dobber Prospects

————–RD——————-

Jack St Ivany (6ft 4in, 200 lb)
The Patron Saint of not playing Fleury has come down from heaven to answer our prayers. Beloved by Pittsburgh Penguin fans, the 27 year-old was penned in for a 3rd line spot last year…before injury struck. Famously, he once jumped the boards and fought Brock Faber, who was whaling on Sid the Kid. He’s here to cover for Salmonsson’s recovery and hopefully be Winnipeg’s 7th defender going forward. However, he has legit 3rd pair potential, and as a RD of a certain age, he is a valuable trade piece.

“He is not a goal-scoring defenseman but can make perfect passing plays, even in his young career. That, as well as his physical presence, will be what fans will want to watch out for.” — The Hockey Writers

Alfons Freij (6ft 2in, 198 lb)

Often played RD over in Sweden, and is probably just a year away from being a player for the Jets. Very creative for a defender, even an offensive one. Freij says he will be concentrating on his defensive work this season in the Moose, which should give him a good chance of making the NHL in 2027-28.

“Freij is a tremendous skater and playmaker from the blue line who would be capable of quarterbacking the power play with ease. Defensively, he is a bit of a project as he often finds himself out of position due to playing overly aggressively in the offensive zone. With that being said, he has great knowledge of the game and tends to make the right decisions more often than not.” — The Hockey Writers

Garrett Brown (6ft 3in, 195 lb)
‘Shutdown‘ Brown, as I call him, won wherever he went, earning a USHL championship with the Sioux City Musketeers and 2 national championships in his 1st and 3rd years at Denver. Son of Curtis Brown, who played C/LW for over 10 years in the NHL, accruing 736 games and 300 pts.
Listed as 6ft 3in and 195lb, the 22.3 year-old BELIEVES he’s going to the Moose to push for a NHL call up, as early as this upcoming season. Brown spent 3 years in USHL, and 3 years at a top NCHC college, so he is well-travelled and well-respected. Also respectable, is his NHLe of 14.7, from last season — 14 pts in 34 games, with a plus-12 for the Eagles.
To me, he’s one of those smart prospects, who master the basics first, then build on their game up gradually. I’ll be betting on him being DeMelo’s long-term replacement, a defensively solid top 4 pairing guy in the big league.

“Not much happens when Brown is on the ice, and professional hockey has always had a place for that type of player. Not a fantasy asset, but perhaps a more credible organizational prospect than his numbers suggest.“– Ryan Downey @ Dobber Prospects

Dysin Mayo (6ft 0in, 195 lb)
Mayo is 29.9 years old, he has played in 84 NHL games, including 3 last season, where he had an assist and a plus-1. He’s probably a Moose due to inking an AHL contract, but is in that Fleury Insurance mold as a possible 7th defender, in my opinion. He has been producing more points in the last 3 years culminating in a 20 NHLe (29pts in 59 games) last season with the Cleveland Monsters, so maybe a late, late developer. A great get for the Moose at worst.

“He is a good skater with adequate puck-moving skills, but lacks any serious offensive upside.“– Sports Forecaster

SUMMARY:

I think we have bigger and potentially better RD options than Dylan DeMelo already in the organization, which is a good thing after his struggles in 2025-26. Overall, our D is about to get bigger across the board in the next two years…not to mention faster and more involved offensively.

I believe the likes of Jack St. Ivany and Henry Thrun have been told there is a chance to be promoted if they play well, so they should be well motivated. Perhaps in courting them this summer, Chevy pointed out that the likes of Logan Stanley, Haydn Fleury, and Jacob Bryson all got games last year…so the chances could be there for them too.

After all, Winnipeg’s top 3 defenders are over 30. Elias Salomonsson is injured for the start of the year. Come make your case. In St Ivany I see a legit 3rd pairing RD. Thrun is only 25, with 123 NHL games already, he’s a good bet to make. And bless Chevy, he got them for next to nothing.

*****

BOJA back again….and since we are on the topic of the True North franchise’s organizational depth, I thought it only appropriate to include a graphic outlining all the players currently under contract or team control at this point in time. Don’t pay a lot of attention to the order of the players, as I wasn’t trying to set up functional lines.

*****

*****

Some other Jets’ news came out today when Cheveldayoff provided an update on Elias Salomonsson & Nikita Chibrikov’s recovery from season-ending surgeries.

“I think Chibby should be back to full go here as far as doing his summer training and everything like that. With Sal, everything seems to be progressing along as well. He’ll have a checkup at some point in time here soon, I don’t know exactly the date but the good thing about him is he’ll still be able to do lots of lower-body training and those type of things. I think everything is progressing as expected with him.”

Sounds like Chibby shouldn’t have any negative impacts to his and it is good news that Salo will be able to keep up his lower body strength & stamina while recovering from his shoulder surgery.

Finally, the National Hockey League has announced that they have the league’s 84 game regular season schedule set to be released on July 16th. Think the opening night games and special event opponents will be announced the previous night at the ESPY’s, if you can’t wait that long. Have a good summer all!!

While this 2026 UFA class is far from bursting with promise, Winnipeg bucked the trend this summer and for the first time since 2017 & 2019, our club was able to add at least two players in the first week of free agency. Still with a couple of days to work with before the week concludes, Chevy has already signed THREE players to contracts, making it their most active start to a free agency ever.

Also, when you look at those two previous “active” starts, they only really brought in one player for the NHL club (2017: Steve Mason – G & 2019: Nathan Beaulieu – D) while also signing depth defenseman Cameron Schilling on both occasions. So when you consider Winnipeg has already added at least a couple expected NHLers…this is easily the franchise’s best beginning to an off-season. Especially when you discover where some of the newest Jets were rated on The Hockey Writers’ Top 40 UFA list.

Stuart Skinner – 23rd

Mario Ferraro – 30th

For the club that leads the rest of the league in being on players’ no trade lists, to get two players in the top 30 is really impressive. When you throw in a potential 4th line grinder like Noah Gregor, you have to be happy with Cheveldayoff’s work in this area. Before people start typing angrily in the Comment section, I know that these moves have only impacted the bottom or depth areas of the roster and there is still a lot of work to be done, in particular to the top six. So I am not recommending Winnipeg’s management for the GM of the Year award or anything like that….just giving them kudos when they earn them.

There are still some options out in Free Agency to possibly help out the Jets’ top six like Anthony Mantha, Oliver Bjorkstrand, & Eeli Tolvanen, but I wouldn’t say any of them are ideal or without risk. Personally, I am not expecting Winnipeg to be very active in free agency from here on out and think the team will switch to the trade approach to continue to try and improve the roster. It is possible that a potential Connor Hellebuyck trade could be holding things up a bit, since the GM doesn’t exactly know what holes any return would fill. Though it does seem that any interest in Bucky has been reduced to two franchises at this point (BUF/CAR)….and I am not that sure the Hurricanes are very serious. If correct in my assessment, that would leave the Sabres’ GM with little pressure to increase their offer to the Jets and that has resulted in the stand off that has existed since the passing of the Entry Draft reduced some of the available assets. With statements like “both the franchise & player take risks when signing a long-term contract in the NHL“, I believe Cheveldayoff is digging his heels into the sand and indicating that Winnipeg is fine keeping the 3 time Vezina Trophy winner in the fold. I also think that Buffalo GM Jarmo Kekalainen has drawn his line in the sand with respect to what he is willing to give up….so we might need something to happen to make one of them move. And that is seeming more likely to occur during the upcoming NHL campaign to me….a bad start for the Sabres, an injury, etc.

Well, that is enough of my trying to predict the future…because without a Bucky trade, I am at a loss to figure out exactly how the Winnipeg Jets will try to improve the top six. I am very high on recent draft pick Viggo Bjorck and everything I’ve heard from Development Camp seems to support my feeling. But even if he does make the club immediately, our True Northers will need more to ensure that enough offense comes from the middle six. Hopefully Winnipeg’s front office has more ideas than I do….because all I got is hoping the Jets could get one of Josh Norris or Ryan McLeod along with Jack Quinn and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen from Buffalo in a Bucky trade.

Now lets get back to looking at what the Jets have brought into the organization with the signings of Mario Ferraro (3 yrs @ $4M), Stuart Skinner (2 yrs @ $3.75M), and Noah Gregor (1 yr @ $850k). I would say that all three players will have a shot at earning a NHL roster spot in training camp, though Gregor’s 2 way deal hints that he might have a more difficult path to that goal.

Winnipeg has been able to plug a couple holes in their line up (3rd pairing LD & back up goalie), so let us take a closer peek at the players who will be replacing Logan Stanley and Eric Comrie.

MARIO FERRARO

27 yrs old, 6′ 209 lbs

#30 on The Hockey Writers top 40 UFA list

I will admit that I haven’t watched a ton of San Jose Sharks hockey over the past 7 seasons, but when I heard that the Jets had signed Ferraro to a contract I was excited. He has a reputation of being a shutdown defender in the media and a hockey team can always use players that are good in their own end. So I eagerly dove into the stats to see for myself what Winnipeg had brought in, starting off with Mario’s basic career stats via ESPN.

Okay, it didn’t surprise me to see that the 27 yr old hasn’t lit up the scoresheet over his career since his rep is based on the play at the other end of the ice, so a 0.233 pts/gm rate is about what I expected. I will admit that there were some ugly numbers above like a -121 plus/minus rating that caught me by surprise. Yet when I did the math to discover that San Jose has a whopping -525 rating during Ferraro’s time with them it is easier to understand why a “defensive defenseman” has such poor stats in that category (played 35% of the minutes & only had 23% of the minuses). The Toronto-born defender has been playing top pairing minutes against the opposition’s top talent in a shutdown role since his 2nd NHL season with the Sharks….and that is for a rebuilding squad that has put up Plus/Minuses of -44, -48, -50, -87, -150, -105, & -41 over that span.

With limited penalty minutes over his career, it is nice to see that while he does spend more time in the “sin bin” than players who get caught making infractions against him, the ratio is in the range you would expect from a defenseman, so we shouldn’t have to see him taking a lot of dumb penalties. Lets check out MoneyPuck’s advanced stats for 5 on 5 play to see what they tell us.

Well, that didn’t help ease any concerns since the Expected Goals (xG’s) numbers are not good at all….in fact, worse than Big Stan’s are (someone I continuously complained about). With both On-Ice Goals & Expected Goals percentages below 50% at even strength for most of his career, that doesn’t make a lot of sense when everyone seems to agree that Ferraro is a good defenseman…so lets dive in further.

For starters, San Jose have been one of the NHL’s worst clubs since Ferraro came into the league, with their best seasons being a pair of 11th worst finishes to go along with two last place, a 3rd worst, a 4th worst, and a 6th worst result. While this most recent campaign was one of the Sharks better ones, the Canadian defenseman had to play the majority of last season on his off-side (right) alongside young LD Shakir Mukhamadullin.

Because there was such a talent difference between the Jets & Sharks over the recent NHL seasons, when you compare the On Ice xG & Off Ice xG stats, you would see that Ferraro was often better than the other options San Jose had to pick from. While Stanley typically was the worst option that Winnipeg’s coaching staff could deploy. Another difference between the two defensemen is that Ferraro has been deployed in a lot more Neutral or Defensive Zone starts when compare to Stanley. Admittedly both players did have that for their highest areas for deployment, but Mario has averaged 5 minutes of ice time per game more than Logan over their careers, showing that one was facing 1st pairing level competition while the other was being sheltered by his coaches.

So hopefully that means that Ferraro’s advanced stats will improve dramatically in 2026-27 with the much more defensively minded Winnipeg Jets. He definitely should see a reduced role behind Josh Morrissey and Dylan Samberg on the left side, so that will help as well with a decreased level of competition.

Overall Winnipeg is covered much better than it was previously on the left side in case of injuries in the top 4 because of the signing, unlike last season when Samberg was out and the squad struggled mightily without their best defender. Ferraro should also add another effective penalty killer to the roster and should help the Jets do better than the 77.6% PK kill rate they put up this year. While I can’t lean on the data as I typically do to support my stance….I am still very happy with the latest addition to the True North defensive core and think he’ll pay dividends in the upcoming campaign.

STUART SKINNER

27 yrs old, 6’4″ 229 lbs

#23 on The Hockey Writers top 40 UFA list

Okay, I will admit that my first thought when I heard that Winnipeg had signed Skinner didn’t have anything to do with his playing history…it was more along the lines that a Hellebuyck trade must be coming down the pipe quickly. GM Cheveldayoff later killed that expectation not only due to his lack of activity on the trade front, but also when he told reporters that the signing was purely about making a move that he thought improved the Jets for the upcoming season.

Of course, I was well aware of the goalies’ struggles at times with the Edmonton Oilers, in particular during the playoffs, and that the move to the Pittsburgh Penguins didn’t exactly go as well as he wished. Here are Stuart’s basic career stats from ESPN:

The Edmonton-born tender has put up a career save percentage (.902%) that is slightly above that of a league average goalie, but not by much. His yearly sv%’s haven’t wavered too far off from that point, with Skinner’s best seasons coming early on and the numbers going the wrong way over the past 3 campaigns.

The Albertan does have the prototypical frame that the NHL is looking for and Winnipeg goaltending coach, Wade Flaherty, has done wonders with the games of players like Laurent Brossoit & Eric Comrie in the past…helping both tenders earn near-starter level contracts in free agency. So the combination of that and a Jets’ system that tries to make the opposition’s offense as predictable as possible could possibly see the 27 yr old’s NHL career take an upswing.

Since I always considered the Oilers as an offense first team that tended to give up too many good scoring chances against, I thought I would do a bit more digging to see what Skinner’s career numbers tell us when it comes to his Actual and Expected Goals Against Averages (GAA).

The chart above didn’t really do anything to change the perception of Winnipeg’s newest goalie, as it continued to suggest that he is slightly better than an average NHL tender. In 4 out of 5 seasons, the Canadian has finished the regular season with a GAA slightly better than expected, plus his Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE) rating confirms that consistency.

Contradicting my perceptions, Edmonton is not a team that gives up a ton of scoring chances after all. In fact, over Stuart’s 4 seasons in Alberta, the Oilers finished with the 16th, 23rd, 29th, & 31st most expected goals against in all situations, while the Pittsburgh Penguins ended with the 17th most xG’s against last year (all in the top half of best defending clubs). So that nullifies the thought that coming to Winnipeg’s ultra-defensive system would be a huge boost to Skinner’s play.

Despite that, I am still very much approving of the Jets signing the 27 yr old, as he provides an upgrade over last year’s back up Eric Comrie at the very least. Skinner also has shown that he can up his game over a full season with a couple +.910 sv% campaigns, so if he is forced into a 1A/1B situation should Hellebuyck be traded after all, there is still some hope that he could provide quality starts on a consistent basis.

NOAH GREGOR

27 yrs old, 6′ 190 lbs

The third 27 year old Winnipeg signed this off-season, the news of Gregor’s deal with the Jets didn’t get the same reaction as the first two. That isn’t because I can’t appreciate what a grinding bottom sixer can do for a team, as I spent the vast majority of my own hockey “career” playing that role.

While the Albertan can certainly be effective when he is throwing bodychecks and agitating the opposition, the fact that he has yet to become a full time starter over his career suggests that his coaching staffs have often had equal or better options to choose from. That makes Gregor likely fall into the Depth Forward category, with the distinct possibility that he could be providing veteran leadership in the AHL to a likely young Manitoba Moose squad.

Lets see what his stats via ESPN tell us about the Canadian forward:

While 79 points over 330 games doesn’t sound that impressive, 0.239 pts/gm is actually not a horrible output from a 4th liner in the NHL. In 5 seasons, Gregor has flirted with the 10% shooting percentage mark, which again shows that he has more offensive upside that your typical 4th line player.

However, before you get excited about Winnipeg adding some offense to their bottom six, MoneyPuck’s advanced stats kind of put a damper on things:

These types of numbers well below the 50% plateau aren’t the kind of thing you want to see from a 4th liner….because that is the type of thing that leads to a coaching staff riding their top 3 lines too much. While Gregor does have the excuse for mainly being on team’s that weren’t very good, with the only playoff appearance coming during his season with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Yet even then, his Expected Goal numbers weren’t very good.

Maybe it is just me? But if I was a coach and had to choose between players that had an offensive upside to go along with a defensive downside, I would be leaning towards a younger player like Brad Lambert, Isak Rosen, Nikita Chibrikov for that role. It is more likely coach Scott Arniel would opt for a more defensively responsible player for his 4th line anyways, likely leaning towards one of the veterans on Winnipeg’s roster or maybe someone like Brayden Yager from the Moose. So I guess what I am saying is that I don’t think Gregor will be a regular starter for the Jets this season…..but I have been wrong in the past and I am fairly sure it will happen again at some point.

*****

Now that we’ve taken a look at GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s body of work in Free Agency, lets hear your thoughts on the new additions. Feel free to add any comments on the direction you think Winnipeg needs to take over the rest of the summer….and might as well let me know what your Hellebuyck Trade Meter is reading for this summer (mine is down to about 25-30%) and whether you think the goalie will still be with the team when the pre-season games kick off on September 19th?

I am also working on adding another part-time writer for Arctic Ice Hockey and they are very much into tracking & rating young players throughout their development. I know not everyone is into the numbers and data of hockey, but I think it will be good to have another perspective on how the True North prospects are doing on their road to the NHL and how they might compare to their counterparts. Also, I know that this person’s additions will be valuable around Entry Drafts, as they really enjoy digging into all that information to determine who are the real gems and who are being artificially pumped up by the scouts.

Unfortunately, even if that new “hire” does pan out, it will still be just me covering the hockey action for the Winnipeg Jets. So if anyone out there is interested in volunteering to help out, please contact BigOlJetAirliner at arcticicehockeyjets@gmail.com. I would certainly appreciate any assistance and would be extremely flexible about what types of articles & how often you are expected to post. Just trying to provide our little community the best entertainment I can, since we are Winnipeg Jets’ fans and deserve the best despite the universe conspiring against us!!🙂

As GM Kevin Cheveldayoff prepares for the 2026-27 campaign, his club is coming off their worst season since 2015-16 and that probably will even reduce the already limited number of players who may want to sign here as a free agent. Although….it is not like there are tons of great options at the top of the UFA pool anyways:

*****

Even though there aren’t likely any game changers available for NHL teams to sign this summer, there are a few forwards like Mason Marchment, Eeli Tolvanen, Oliver Bjorkstrand, & Scott Laughton who are available and could provide Winnipeg some benefits next season. The Jets also have a hole at the 3rd LD spot and the ideal player to fill that might be Mario Ferraro, though I am sure he will have plenty of other suitors. Some of the True North faithful also might be looking forward to a reunion with big Logan Stanley this summer…but I am certainly not one of them.

Winnipeg does have the cap space to do some things this off-season, as they currently have $19,281,668 available to play with and only one RFA to re-sign. Cole Perfetti had a down year like most of the Jets last season, so the path forward for a talented player just 2 seasons away from UFA status isn’t as clear as it should be. However, even the most optimistic long-term deal for the young winger wouldn’t cost much more than $7M/yr, so Chevy would still have $12M to sign another forward, defenseman, and back up goalie. Besides their sole RFA big league player to sign, the True Northers do have 5 UFAs to consider for new contracts….though I think really only tender Eric Comrie will get any serious reflection.

Of course, if the much discussed trade of Connor Hellebuyck goes ahead, the cap outlook would be likely look totally different, as it has been reported that the Jets are looking for at least a couple of roster players (and therefore salary) coming back. At this point, as much as the media & fans speculate on potential destinations for Bucky…I am getting the feeling that it really is down to just the Buffalo Sabres at this point. While some teams like the Carolina Hurricanes are still lurking around, I don’t think they are willing to give up what Winnipeg is looking for so far.

Here is how the Winnipeg Jets’ cap situation looks for the upcoming seasons (courtesy of PuckPedia):

*****

I know this article doesn’t include a whole lot of information or analysis….but I just wanted to get a new article up on Arctic Ice Hockey before Free Agency kicked off. Motivation has been low around here and to date, Chevy hasn’t tipped his hand to show what direction he is planning on taking the team. Maybe we’ll get a sign when the Free Agent Frenzy kicks off?

Let me hear if you have any favoured FA targets? Do you think Hellebuyck is going to be traded before the season? On a scale of 1 to 10….what is the excitement level for the upcoming campaign?

Have a great summer everyone!!

Yet, before we move on I might as well look at some of the teams the media & the fans are suggesting the 3 time Vezina Trophy winner could be shipped to. One unconfirmed report indicated that Hellebuyck was only willing to waive his No Movement Clause (NMC) for the Florida Panthers, the Vegas Golden Knights, & the Minnesota Wild….but since that is the exact same list that Dylan Larkin initially gave the Detroit Red Wings, I am guessing that is someone trying to push a “US Olympic Team” trying to playing together concept.

The Wild aren’t in a great position to trade for Bucky anyways, between the lack of a true need at the goalie position and the depleted prospect pool they have as a result of the Quinn Hughes acquisition. However, the Panthers are receiving a lot of attention in the media and on sites like PuckPedia. The offers proposed vary wildly, but a common theme seems to be Winnipeg insisting on center Anton Lundell & the 9th overall pick and the Cats’ GM not willing to go there so far. As a result, you often see forward Mackie Samoskevich and additional assets included instead. The Buffalo Sabres’ fans are very hungry after their club finally ended their playoff drought, so there are numerous trade proposals for Hellebuyck coming from this group. Again, the offers are everywhere from center Joshua Norris, goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and multiple 1sts to defenseman Bowen Byram & a 2027 1st rounder. Other forwards like Ryan McLeod, Peyton Krebs, or Jack Quinn are substituted in at times as well.

The Vegas Golden Knights have just recently switched to off-season mode after losing the Stanley Cup to the Carolina Hurricanes, so there haven’t really be any offers suggested by the media there. It would certainly take some salary cap juggling for them to fit in Bucky….but if any team could do it, it would be the Knights. However, the latest Cup winners are also often suggested as a destination since they have plenty of cap space and had to turn to a young back up goalie to get by Vegas. How much belief does management have in Brandon Bussi? They do have plenty of assets to tempt Winnipeg too.

Part of the reason it is so difficult to nail down what Hellebuyck could fetch in a trade is because star goaltenders are seldom moved. And I mean seldomly. As far as I could see, there were a few moves that I figured could show the range….yet even they aren’t exact comparisons to Bucky. The first is over 20 years old, when the Vancouver Canucks acquired Roberto Luongo from the Florida Panthers for Todd Bertuzzi, Alex Auld, & Byran Allen. Clearly Bertuzzi was the best piece for the Canucks, yet he hadn’t even really broken out when he was moved but did top out with a 97 point season. Luongo then was moved back to Florida with his albatross contract in 2014 for goalie Jacob Markstrom & Shawn Matthias. Once again, the best part of this deal wasn’t an established NHLer yet, though he did put up a .900%+ save percentage in two early campaigns. The final example I came across is when goalie Cory Schneider was moved from the Vancouver Canucks to the New Jersey Devils at the 2013 NHL Entry Draft for the 9th overall selection (Nucks ended up selecting Bo Horvat with the pick). Schneider had put up three straight .920%+ save percentages as a back up before being moved, so he showed a lot of promise but hadn’t actually taken over the starter’s reins yet.

None of these examples suggest the huge haul some Jets’ fans are expecting if Winnipeg does move on from their starting goalie. Yet I still have hope that Chevy will bring in a valuable piece or two if his hand is forced and he has to make a trade. While there are things you can complain about when it comes to Cheveldayoff’s performance at the top of the True North organization (mainly drafting & player development-wise, for me)…..he has done fairly well when players like Jacob Trouba, Patrik Laine, & Pierre-Luc Dubois forced their ways out. So I will give him the benefit of the doubt…..though with the news that Winnipeg’s owners are working on an extension for the GM, it doesn’t sound like the NHL’s longest serving General Manager is going anywhere anyways.

*****

The Jets’ front office hasn’t been completely inactive since they were ousted from the playoffs, as they have inked a few role players in winger Cole Koepke ($1.45M @ 2 yrs), winger Walker Duehr ($875k @ 2 yrs), & goalie Isaac Poulter ($850k @ 1 yr).

News reports indicate that they have started contract renewal negotiations with RFA Cole Perfetti, yet the two parties are said to be far apart. Whether that is in terms of dollar amount or length of contract was not reported…but it certainly has sparked a lot of other teams’ fans to make trade proposals for the young, and in my view, undervalued winger.

*****

Another piece of news from the True North universe is that Jonathan Toews has officially called an end to his 17 year NHL career by announcing his retirement. Starting off as a rookie in the 2007-08 campaign, the Canadian led the Chicago Blackhawks to years of success before the later part of his career was impacted by a medical condition. After missing 2 complete seasons, Toews launched a comeback in his hometown city and while he proved that he was durable enough for the daily grinds of NHL life….his legs weren’t up to the pace anymore. I really wish his return to the Peg would have went better….but regardless of how this year played out for the club and the veteran, I will applaud a Hall of Fame worthy career coming to a conclusion.

*****

With the 2026 NHL Entry Draft nearing, here are what some of the “experts” have been predicting for the Winnipeg Jets at the #8 position:

• Craig Button, TSN, May 5: Tynan Lawrence
• Chris Peters, Flo Hockey, May 5: Daxon Rudolph
• Cam Robinson, Elite Prospects, May 6: Viggo Björck
• Scott Wheeler, The Athletic, May 7: Tynan Lawrence
• Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff, May 6: Alberts Šmits
• NHL scouts and executives, polled by The Athletic, May 25: Daxon Rudolph
• Max Bultman, The Athletic, May 27: Viggo Björck
• Corey Pronman, The Athletic, June 1: Alberts Šmits

Jets’ Scouting Director Mark Hillier has frequently cited the philosophy of “best player available” and I am not sure there will be forward there for Winnipeg to draft at #8 that can outshine some of the defensive prospects. While both Viggo Bjorck & Tynan Lawrence have 2nd line center potential, there are areas of concern in both skaters’ games.

Out of the two defenders selected by the above “experts“, I think Alberts Smits likely has the higher ceiling but personally I am more a fan of Daxon Rudolph’s overall game. While the Jets do have a couple prospects already in the pool that have top 4 potential in Elias Salomonsson & Sascha Boumedienne, I don’t think that should stop them from adding another one in the 1st round of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft. Guess we will see who Winnipeg’s head scout views as the “best player available” when their name is called on this Friday (June 26th).

If you would like to read up more on these 4 prospects, or 13 other ones, please check out AIH’s previous article: 2026 NHL Entry Draft: Top Prospects.

*****

Well, that is about all I have. Just wanted to get a new article up on the site to let you know that BOJA is still alive and well. Enjoy the sunshine everyone!!!

In our final installment of this series, we get to players who have a current NHL Certainty rating under 6.0. Yet when it comes to that & the Dobber Prospects’ PNHLe stat, both offer “snapshots” of where the prospect is on his developmental road….not where they think that road will lead. Therefore, certainly all of these kids’ big league futures shouldn’t be written off at this point…though some of the older ones may be nearing their ceilings.

Since we have a lot to get through…..lets get going!!

NHL CERTAINTY RATING = 5.5

• Drafted in the 3rd round (77th overall) by the Winnipeg Jets in 2022 after Danny Zhilkin put up 55 pts in 65 gms with the Guelph Storm (OHL) as an 18 yr old. The Canadian-Russian followed that up with a similar output split between the Storm & the Kitchener Rangers (56 pts in 60 gms).
• The center’s first two seasons with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose showed that he had the skating and defensive abilities to play the pro game, but the offense was very limited (17 pts in 97 gms). This past campaign saw Danny pick up the pace despite the mini-Jets’ horrible offense, as he amassed a career high 12 goals & 24 points in the minors. That improved play saw him get called up for his first 6 NHL contests, allowing him the chance to pick up his first NHL point (assist).
• Manitoba head coach Mark Morrison is of the opinion that the 22 yr old is NHL ready for a bottom six role, but it remains to be seen if Winnipeg’s front office thinks the same.
• Dobber Prospects says Zhilkin “has the size and speed to become a dependable bottom-six two-way center“. That matches what I’ve seen with the Moose, as the prospect has shown to be a good option at the face-off circle and to play a good defensive game. His wheels allow him to make an impact in transition and on the forecheck, both important things when they come from the bottom of a team’s forward units.
• Ceiling is limited by the lack of high end skill, but with the Jets’ disappointing bottom six this past season, you have to think the young forward will view the upcoming training camp as an opportunity to be apart of the club’s new direction.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Bottom Six Center

Most Likely: NHL 4th line Center/Depth Forward

Basement: AHL Middle Six Center

*****

• As a 17 yr old OHL rookie, the goalie started the campaign as the back up for the North Bay Battalion. Yet Dominic DiVincentiis was able to take over the starting role by the end of the regular season (2.59 GAA/.907 sv%) and that caught the eyes of the Winnipeg Jets’ scouts.
• GM Kevin Cheveldayoff ended up taking a gamble on him with the team’s 7th round pick in 2022 and the move seemingly paid off as Dom won the OHL Goalie of the Year the following season with impressive stats (2.33 GAA/.919 sv%).
• After a disappointing final Junior season that was impacted by a couple injuries, the Canadian tender turned pro for the 2024-25 campaign. Splitting his time between the AHL’s Manitoba Moose and the ECHL’s Norfolk Admirals put up okay stats as a rookie, but he wasn’t helped by the fact that the minor league’s roster took a step back talent-wise that season (2.84 GAA/.906 sv%). This season DiVincentiis continued to split the games with fellow goalie prospect Thomas Milic while putting up similar numbers on another poorly performing Moose squad (3.03 GAA/.896 sv%).
• Yet when the 22 yr old was handed the reins to the team’s playoff hopes, he certainly stepped up to the plate (1.43 GAA & a .955 sv% in 5 starts). The outstanding play of the Moose goalie was the only reason the low scoring Manitoba offense was able to win their opening playoff round and he continued the strong performance against the AHL’s #2 team in the 2nd round. While he couldn’t stop his team from eventual elimination, he greatly frustrated the Grand Rapids Griffins’ (DET) scorers and that possibly impacted their play going forward (got eliminated in the next round by the much lower ranked Chicago Wolves (CAR)).
• But that is the rub with DiVincentiis when it comes to his NHL potential…..he has shown that he has the game to play at an elite level…yet doing it on a regular enough basis to fully steal the starting job in Manitoba has remained beyond his grasp in his first 2 professional seasons. I will remind myself that goalies do take the longest to develop and also add that he was a 7th round pick…so it wasn’t like he was expected to take a quick path to the big league. The positive is thing is he has the size & tools to be an effective shot stopper….the rest is a mental thing, and we’ve seen that even a 3 time Vezina Trophy winner like Connor Hellebuyck has to continue to fight that battle (especially in the playoffs).

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Starting Goalie

Most Likely: NHL Back Up/Depth Goalie

Basement: AHL Starting Goalie

*****

NHL CERTAINTY RATING = 5.0

• As a 17 yr old, the Swede played in multiple leagues with varying levels of production. He was successful in the country’s under 20 division (39 pts in 43 gms), international play (42 pts in 29 gms), and the World Junior Championships (8 pts in 7 gms), yet failed to get his name on the scoresheet in 3 contests in the top league (SHL).
• That led the Winnipeg Jets to select Viktor Klingsell in the 5th round (156th overall) of the 2025 NHL Entry Draft. In his post-draft campaign, the under-sized forward has shown that he is too good for Sweden’s U20 league (43 pts in 25 gms). That earned him a decently long look with the SHL’s Skelleftea team (1 pt in 12 gms), while he continued to produce well on the international level & the 2nd highest league (17 pts in 16 gms).
• Since none of my hockey sites offer frequent coverage of Sweden’s top leagues, I haven’t gotten much chance to watch a prospect Elite Prospects says has “natural instincts and feel for the game are undeniable, showing in the way he links up with and plays off his linemates while also being capable of setting the pace and slowing the game down. While the brain drives his value, Klingsell is also smooth and effortless both as a skater and puck-handler, capable of chaining together crossover-heavy rushes and inside-out attacks“.
• Dobber Prospects echoes those thoughts with their “an elite playmaking forward that needs to fine-tune his overall game, he has sneaky middle-six upside“.
• The 19 yr old has already agreed to play another season overseas, after which I would assume that he would make the move to North America. I believe he will have to make his mark in the AHL in order to give Winnipeg’s front office a reason to take a chance on the under-sized forward in the NHL. Too early for me to guess his Most Likely final development level, but I think the scouts give us a good clue on the range he should fall in.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Middle Six Winger

Most Likely: ????

Basement: AHL Top Six Winger

*****

• As an 18 yr old, the big forward started the season in the Greater Ontario Junior Hockey League, but after scoring at an almost 2 pts/gm pace, he was called up to make his OHL debut with the London Knights. As a rookie playing limited minutes in the bottom six, Jacob Julien put up 16 pts in 40 gms before he was selected by the Winnipeg Jets in the 5th round (146th overall) of the 2023 Entry Draft.
• Returning for a second season with his hometown Knights, the 19 yr old saw a great uptick in his production as London went on to win the OHL Championship (78 pts in 67 reg season gms & 18 pts in 18 playoff gms). Just a bit too young to join the AHL, the Canadian center returned for a final Junior campaign in 2024-25, where he saw his production fall off a a bit in the regular season (54 pts in 65 gms)…though he continued to be very effective in the playoffs (19 pts in 17 gms).
• Set to make his professional hockey debut with the Manitoba Moose this past season, Julien’s rookie year got off to a rough start when an injury cost him part of training camp & the first 3 months of the AHL campaign. Despite a couple warm up games in the ECHL, it took the 21 yr old a while to get up to speed again and when you combine that with the Moose’s meagre offensive production, it probably wasn’t that surprising that Jacob only ended up with 7 pts in 31 games.
• Mark Henry from Dobber’s says this about the Ontarian’s game & potential: “Julien was not drafted for his goal-scoring ability, but was better known for his playmaking ability and defensive game, making it hard for his opponents to play against him. For a 6-4 player, he skates well and does not take a shift off. He will not be relied upon in the pros for his point production; instead, he will be looked at to kill penalties and be a reliable bottom-six player who can match up against the opposing team’s better players. Julien will not have a high ceiling but will have a solid floor and should become a dependable bottom-six NHL player“.
• One of the few Jets’ prospects in this article that have a PNHLe chart, you will see that Jacob’s ceiling has dropped from his impressive post-draft OHL campaign to settle where it likely belonged all the time…the bottom six.

• Even though my first chance to watch Julien play regularly was impacted by injury, once he was up to speed he did bring a lot of the things on ice that I expected. A defensively responsible forward who can be counted to sacrifice the body to block a shot or to free up the puck on the forecheck. He appeared to be good in the face-off circle and has the ability to improve a penalty kill. Think Adam Lowry, but possibly with even less of a scoring touch. Hopefully Manitoba will find a way to unleash the offense next season and we’ll have a better idea on if Jacob can contribute to that more consistently at the pro level.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL 3rd Line Center

Most Likely: NHL 4th Line Center

Basement: NHL Depth Center/Winger

*****

NHL CERTAINTY RATING = 4.5

• In his season prior to becoming NHL draft eligible, the 18 yr old took over the starting reins of the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds and delivered in both the regular season (2.44 GAA/.912 sv%) and playoffs (2.29 GAA/.925 sv%). Despite that, the under-sized Thomas Milic wasn’t drafted by an pro team that summer.
• Undeterred, the goalie returned to the WHL for another year and even delivered better stats (2.08 GAA/.925 sv% reg season & 1.95 GAA/.933 sv% in the playoffs). That helped the Thunderbirds win the championship that season, while the British Columbian picked up a bunch of hardware along the way. His strong play made the Winnipeg Jets take a shot on the Canadian in the 5th round (151st overall).
• Immediately turning pro, the 20 yr old started off by splitting his first season between the AHL’s Manitoba Moose (33 gms, 2.72 GAA, & .900 sv%) & the ECHL’s Norfolk Admirals (18 gms, 2.45 GAA, & .908 sv%). The following campaign saw Milic be given the Moose’s starting job, but struggles (21 gms, 3.44 GAA, & .877 sv%) saw him sent down to the Admirals to work on his game (which he did very well,18 gms, 1.82 GAA, & .935 sv%). The tender followed that up with a strong EHCL playoff run too (9 gms, 1.61 GAA, & .945 sv%).
• Finally, this past season Thomas was able to edge out Dominic DiVincentiis for the #1 role in the minors (41 gms, 2.64 GAA, & .905 sv%), but after a so-so opening playoff performance Dom got the chance in Game 2 and his hot play kept the 23 yr old in the back up role.
• Milic mixes good position and speedy reflexes to make up for his under-sized frame (for an NHL goalie), as well as using good foot work and a strong compete level to out-perform expectations. Just look at the accolades he has picked up in his career to date: Gold Medal in both the under 18 & 20 World Junior Championships, CSSHL Goalie of the Year, WHL 1st & 2nd All Star nominations, WHL Goalie of the Year, WHL Championship, & WHL Playoff MVP.
• Despite all those awards, Thomas has an uphill battle to become an NHL regular. We’ve seen even more highly touted 6′ goalies like the Calgary Flames’ Dustin Wolf (.899 sv%) and the Buffalo Sabres’ Devon Levi (.872 sv%) struggle to gain traction in the big league. Milic put up similar numbers when he was thrown into action with the Winnipeg Jets for 3 games (.871 sv%), though it has to be said the our team was playing some awful hockey at the time.
• Even though the True Northers’ back up situation is still unknown with Eric Comrie hitting free agency, I doubt that the GM will go with one of the tender prospects in that role next season. So if DiVincentiis or Milic want to get into some NHL action next year, they will likely have to perform very well in the minors to grab the front office’s attention. With the Canadian’s fighting spirit, I will never write off his chances….but as of now, here is how I am predicting his potential.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Back Up Goalie

Most Likely: NHL Depth Goalie

Basement: AHL Starting Goalie

*****

NHL CERTAINTY RATING = 4.0

• The Illinois-born defenseman was 17 yrs old in his pre-draft season, where he split his time between a couple of USHL clubs (17 pts in 54 gms), while also getting the opportunity to represent his country at the World Juniors (U18). Something in there drew the attention of the Winnipeg Jets’ scouts, as our team opted to select Edison Engle in the 6th round (188th overall) of the 2025 draft.
• The American opted to take advantage of the recent NCAA rule changes to spend a year in the OHL with the Brantford Bulldogs before he makes the move to college in 2026-27 with Western Michigan University. The move appeared to pay off, as the 18 yr old had a strong campaign (28 pts in 61 gms) while also getting the chance to play a couple playoff rounds (5 pts in 15 gms).
• Dobbers’ indicates that Edison is a “deceptive two-way defenseman with excellent speed and skating ability who can make an impact in all three zones“. They also are saying that he could have a top 4 potential ceiling at the NHL level, according to his PNHLe chart.

• Engle has the size and defensive attributes to appeal to the Jets’ front office, though he could certainly use some weight training to up his bulk this off-season. It will be interesting to see how his game adjusts to the older & likely bigger NCAA competition, but I do expect the 19 yr old to spend a couple of seasons there before making the jump to the pros. I could be wrong, as he will be eligible for the AHL by 2027-78.
• Still early on in his development, so really my Most Likely prediction is closer to an outright guess. Though I do like what the scouts have to say about his defensive game, which is usually the sticking point for prospects trying to make the jump to an NHL blueline.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Middle Pairing Defenseman

Most Likely: NHL Bottom Pairing Defenseman

Basement: AHL Top Pairing Defenseman

*****

• As a 17 yr old, the big forward raised eyebrows in the US High School Prep league, as he piled up 115 points in 74 games (including 51 goals). That lead to Chevy & company taking a shot on Zachary Nehring in the 3rd round (82nd overall) of the 2023 Entry Draft.
• Always viewed as a long-term project, the North Dakotan saw his production dip when he made the jump to the USHL (14 pts in 44 gms). The following season the winger made the move to the NCAA with the Western Michigan University and his numbers rebounded a bit (30 pts in 42 gms). Unfortunately, this past year’s campaign didn’t go as well statistically (17 pts in 35 gms), though Zachary did walk away with an NCAA Championship.
• Dobber’s scouting report indicates the 21 yr old is a “big, physical winger who isn’t afraid to crash the net. A long-term prospect with a chance to be a middle-six forward who can play in all situations and contribute offensively, also adding value in hits and blocks categories“.
• Already at an age where he could leave school to become a professional, it remains to be seen if the Winnipeg Jets will offer him a contract this summer. They have until June 1st of next summer to ink the prospect and I expect that he will return to college for one final season before he decides to sign with the True Northers or just wait to reach unrestricted free agency. Yet Nehring is still young enough to continue to build on his game and it sometimes takes these larger players a bit long to hit their top potential….so where he ends up in the following ranges is up in the air.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Bottom Six Winger

Most Likely: NHL Depth Winger

Basement: AHL Middle Six Winger

*****

• At 24 yrs old already, the Moose defender may have left the “prospect” territory but since Isaak Phillips is coming off his best AHL season (29 pts in 67 gms), I thought I would keep him in.
• Originally drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 5th round (141st overall) in 2020, the defenseman has played a total of 59 NHL games (12 pts) which includes the 3 he got into with the Winnipeg Jets this year.
• Dobber’s PNHLe chart below doesn’t seem to match the NHL Certainty rating (4.0) or the words the scouts used…”A depth defenseman with a good combination of size and skating ability. Will be a full-time AHL player, barring significant injuries to multiple players at the NHL level for Winnipeg“.

• I liked how the Canadian defender used his skating to join in the rush with Manitoba this season and he provided them with a lot of valuable minutes in his own end as well. A solid all-around year for the veteran AHLer.
• Unless the Jets get him into 21 contests next season, the Ontario-born player will reach Group 6 UFA status next summer….but in the meantime, he will play big minutes for the Moose while also providing our club with a decent 8th or 9th defenseman option in the depth chart.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Bottom Six Defenseman

Most Likely: NHL Depth Defenseman

Basement: AHL Top Pairing Defenseman

*****

NHL CERTAINTY RATING = 3.5

• As an under-sized winger in the OHL, the 17 yr old had a promising season from the Saginaw Spirit’s bottom six (47 pts in 67 gms). As a result, the Winnipeg Jets ended up taking a gamble on the Jacob Cloutier in the 7th round (220th overall) last summer.
• Unfortunately, the kid wasn’t able to take a step forward with his offensive production in 2025-26 (47 pts in 64 gms) so his PNHLe chart from Dobber’s has seen a dip to his potential ceiling.

• The young Canadian plays a “fast, intense, high-energy physical game” according to the scouts at that site and has shown a level of consistency over his first 2 Junior campaigns. Still a year away from being eligible for the AHL, Jacob will be looking to build his overall game in his final season.
• Elite Prospects also confirmed Cloutier’s high motor, but also mentioned that he thrives on the cycle game using his speed & tenacity to win board battles, as well as using his body to protect the puck when he’s got it on his stick.
• Still too early to really guess on the Most Likely category, another full campaign should give us a better idea on whether Jacob can be a rare 7th round pick to become a full time NHLer.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Middle Six Winger

Most Likely: ???

Basement: AHL Bottom Six Winger

*****

• As a 17 yr old in USHL (16 pts in 36 gms), Garrett Brown drew the Winnipeg Jets’ attention enough to select him 4th round (99th overall).
• The big defenseman followed up with 18 pts in 54 gms in the same league before making the move to the NCAA the next season. An injury limited the New Yorker to only 8 games with Denver is a freshman, but the defender was able to play a bigger role in the next two seasons (which included a national championship).
• Dobber has kept Brown’s PNHLe rating fairly even over the years, with a potential ceiling of a 3rd pairing defenseman at the NHL suggested.

• The lack of offense noticed in the stats and in the scouting comments is surprising from the little I’ve seen of Garrett’s game. When his NCAA career came to an end after this past season, the American signed his first professional contract and was able to join the Manitoba Moose for 4 playoff games. The 22 yr old defender seemed to be a good skater for someone 6’3″ and didn’t seem to be shy when it came to jumping into an offensive rush up the ice. He didn’t pick up any points, but when the Moose had problems scoring more than 1 goal per game…that isn’t too surprising.
• I liked my first impression of his game, but until I get to see him on regular basis during the AHL’s 2026-27 campaign…I don’t have any personal feeling of where Brown will end up.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Bottom Four Defenseman

Most Likely: ???

Basement: AHL Top Four Defenseman

*****

NHL CERTAINTY RATING = 3.0

• Another overaged prospect that I thought to include in our review….mainly because Tyrel Bauer had a good enough season for the Manitoba Moose that it deserved to be talked about. A 6th round (164th overall) in 2020 by the Winnipeg Jets after he captained the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds for multiple seasons, he joined the True North franchise’s AHL affiliate in 2022-23
• After spending most of his first 3 professional season playing in the Moose’s bottom six and providing entertainment with his fists (over 100 PIMs in 3 of 4 campaigns), the 24 yr old moved into the top four this year and he played some good hockey (even though he didn’t provide much offense – 5 pts in 52 gms). The Albertan had his best defensive season though, as his -2 rating isn’t bad when you consider his club ended with a -31 Goal Differential.
• Yet Bauer’s contributions go beyond the ice, since his work in the Winnipeg community not only earned him his teammates vote for the AHL’s Man of the Year award…..he actually got enough votes from the rest of the league to walk away with the trophy.
• Dobber’s calls him a stereotypically “stay at home defenseman” and he builds on that by standing up for his teammates, making him an extremely valuable asset to protect the Jets’ high end prospects in the minors.

• The latest PNHLe has seen a slight uptick in Bauer’s potential, but it still seems likely that the Canadian tops out as an depth defenseman. Regardless, I would like to see him get at least a game in with Winnipeg next year if the season goes awry, since his leadership & play in the minors deserves to be rewarded. Only 49% of drafted players end up suiting up for an NHL contest, so it would be great if the Jets could help Tyrel slip into that category at some point.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: NHL Depth Defenseman

Most Likely: AHL Top Four Defenseman

Basement: AHL Top Four Defenseman

*****

UNRANKED NHL CERTAINTY

• As an 5’10” under-sized forward, Fabian Wagner did well in his pre-draft campaign when he was playing in the under 20 league (38 pts in 43 gms). That was enough for the Winnipeg Jets to select him in the 6th round (175th overall) in 2022.
• He followed that up with a similar season, though he did get into 22 SHL games with Linkoping HC (0 pts). In 2023-24, the Swede struggled in his country’s top league (6 pts in 41 gms) and when that happened to start the next campaign (0 pts in 16 gms), Fabian was moved to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose for the remainder of the season. Unfortunately that didn’t unlock his offense either (13 pts in 50 gms), though he hinted at that potential with a strong finish.
• Alas, this season went even worse (3 pts in 29 gms) as Wagner often found himself a healthy scratch in the minors.
• While the prospect did grow a couple inches since he was drafted, the much needed added weight didn’t really come with that spurt. As a result, the under-sized winger can easily get knocked off the puck by the opposition…which isn’t a great trait when you are hoping to carve out a bottom six role in the NHL.
• Personally, I haven’t seen anything in his time with the Moose to even remotely suggest a big league future, so my potential ratings are pretty pessimistic.

POTENTIAL:

Ceiling: AHL Bottom Six Winger

Most Likely: Returns to Europe after his ELC

Basement: ECHL Middle Six Winger

*****

Well, that finally wraps up Arctic Ice Hockey’s look at the Winnipeg Jets’ prospects heading into the 2026-27 season. It certainly has taken me a while to research & write it…and from the lengths of the articles, it likely has taken you a long time to read them. Hopefully after all that effort we have a better idea what is in the True North prospect pool. Now we just have to wait until June 26th & 27th to see who else GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will be adding (WPG has 1st, 3rd, 4th (EDM), 5th, 6th, 7th, & 7th (BUF) round selections).

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Despite a lot of people in the media & fans on PuckPedia advocating that the Jets’ move #8 for some immediate help…..I really hope they don’t do that. My rationale is that while Winnipeg does have some promising prospects in the fold, we are missing the real high end ones. As of now, I don’t see any player coming up in the system that will eventually replace an aging 1st liner like Mark Scheifele or Kyle Connor, nor a top pairing defenseman like Josh Morrissey (who only has 2 yrs left on his current deal).

So I don’t even care that much about who Chevy will take with the 8th overall pick….just as long as he keeps it. Though I do have to say my feelings of under-sized Viggo Bjorck have improved since I did the 2026 NHL Entry Draft: Top Prospects article. The young Swede is giving me a Nicholas Ehlers’ vibe, so now I am not even scared if Winnipeg takes a chance on the 5’10” forward. Still think the True Northers need to add some size to their forward corps and fill that long empty 2C hole…so won’t be upset if they go for a larger player or for a center.

Let me hear in the Comment section whether you are excited about any of these “longer shot” prospects? Which kids’ hockey skills intrigue you the most? When it comes to all 4 parts of the review….do you have any prospects you feel have the best chance to make an impact for Winnipeg in the future? Are there any that you wouldn’t include in a trade for a middle sixer to help the Jets next season?

Not exactly sure what is on tap for my next AIH article…..though will probably take another look at the upcoming draft before the end of the month with the hopes of narrowing down who Chevy may select with the 8th overall pick. Let me know if there are any other topics that you would like to see discussed over the summer. Stay healthy and enjoy the off-season everyone!!